2015 Group 2 Queensland Derby runner-by-runner preview
THURSDAY's Albion Park meeting will see the running of the 2015 Group 2 Queensland Derby with dual Group 1 winner Dyna Villa looking the one to beat from box two. The son of Collision and Roxio Bale has been ultra-consistent throughout his career to date and will be aiming to take his prize money earnings beyond the $700,000 mark after a sizzling 29.68 heat victory last week.
Dyna Villa won't face an easy assignment, with gun NSW speedster No Donuts securing the prized rails draw. The youngster, by Fabregas out of Chevy Princess, will be competing to take out the first feature race of his career after running second in the Group 2 Richmond Derby final in March.
Quasi Bale, which won the Richmond Derby, will be aiming to take out a Derby double when he exits box five on Thursday night for Victorian mentor Mark Delbridge. The black dog has won 13 from 28, but will need plenty of luck from the awkward draw.
There are also a host of local chances looking to secure the prize including Bago Kysame (box six) and Elusive Desire (box seven). Both have drawn less than ideally but have managed to break the elusive 30 second barrier in the past.
Lets hear what Australian Racing Greyhound‘s Brad Bugeja had to say about the chances of each contender…
Box One – No Donuts
Black Dog – 30.8kg – June 2013
Fabregas x Chevy Princess
Trainer: Brad Canty
Career: 11:7-2-1
T/D: 1:1-0-0
T/D Best: 30.08
Career Highlights: 2ND 2015 Group 2 Richmond Derby, FINALIST 2015 Group 3 New Sensation
“Enormous talent who still has improvement in him, last week he overcame some early difficulties before scoring in a handy 30.08. He was a tad slow to begin last week, but from the red tonight I'm expecting him to step a lot better and I think he should settle right on the hammer of Dyna Villa, however I do believe that if he jumps at his best he has the speed to match Dyna Villa. This bloke is the real deal and he is my top pick for the final, I believe with a clear run he can go sub 29.70 and that should be good enough to score.”
Odds to win the QLD Derby: $2.60 with William Hill
Box Two – Dyna Villa
Black Dog – 32.5kg – October 2012
Collision x Roxio Bale
Trainer: Jenny Hunt
Career: 41:22-7-7
T/D: 1:1-0-0
T/D Best: 29.68
Career Highlights: WON 2014 Group 1 Melbourne Cup, WON 2015 Group 1 Paws of Thunder, 2ND 2015 Group 1 Silver Chief Classic, 3RD 2014 Group 1 Hobart Thousand, FINALIST 2014 Group 2 Geelong Cup, 2015 Group 2 Shepparton Cup, 2015 Group 1 Temlee
“All class and a win tonight will see him surpass the 700k mark in prize money. He is going to start a short priced favourite and he is clearly a great winning chance, however there are a couple of runners in this event that might test him in the early stages. Like always, he is going to have to lead to win and he was brilliant 29.68 heat winner last week but at the short odds I think he is a tad risky tonight.”
Odds to win the QLD Derby: $1.55 with William Hill
Box Three – Fabulous Storm
Black Dog – 32.2kg – February 2013
Fabregas x Whirly Storm
Trainer: Reg Hazelgrove
Career: 24:7-5-6
T/D: 9:3-1-2
T/D Best: 29.80
Career Highlights: WON Albion Park 29.80, Ipswich 30.59
“Racing in great heart at present and he turned in a mammoth effort when placed in his heat last week and prior to that he did post a sizzling 29.80 victory here. If he was guaranteed a clear run I would be certain he could finish in the top three easily, however there is a fair bit of speed drawn around him tonight and I think he is likely to be squeezed out soon after box rise. Great effort to make the final but he is going to need too many things to go his way in running.”
Odds to win the QLD Derby: $23 with William Hill
Box Four – Don't Go Quietly
Black Dog – 36.0kg – January 2013
Oaks Road x Mercy Rule
Trainer: Pamela Field
Career: 29:7-11-5
T/D: 26:6-9-5
T/D Best: 29.96
Career Highlights: 3RD 2015 Molly Campbell Silver Dollars, WON Albion Park 30.01, Ipswich 31.40
“Has finally fixed his box manners and he has shanghaied out in his past three starts. Last week he went through the first marker in a breathtaking 5.46 and that was faster than Dyna Villa and Over Here on the same night. If he repeats that effort tonight he could cause some bother for Dyna Villa and if he crosses he might set up a nice lead mid race. I dont think he can hold on for the win but he can run a drum at nice odds.”
Odds to win the QLD Derby: $23 with William Hill
Box Five – Quasi Bale
Black Dog – 31.1kg – December 2012
Bekim Bale x Amanda Bale
Trainer: Mark Delbridge
Career: 28:13-2-1
T/D: 1:0-1-0
T/D Best: 30.23
Career Highlights: WON 2015 Group 2 Richmond Derby, The Meadows 34.20, Sandown Park 33.88
“Desperately unlucky in his heat last week and he will be looking to make amends. After a slow getaway he was always in trouble and he had to work very hard to get into contention. Tonight I'm expecting him to begin a lot better and if he can settle in the first four he will take a power of beating. If you go back and have a look at his Richmond Derby win, he destroyed a similar lineup and that win was probably one of the most impressive wins in racing this year.”
Odds to win the QLD Derby: $11 with William Hill
Box Six – Bago Kysam
Fawn Dog – 29.0kg – November 2012
Cosmic Rumble x Oxley Falcon
Trainer: Peter Ruetschi
Career: 31:9-5-6
T/D: 14:4-2-1
T/D Best: 29.93
Career Highlights: WON Albion Park 29.93, Ipswich 25.18, 30.50
“Used his inside draw to advantage when scoring a top 29.95 heat win last week and if he happens to step again he could figure in the finish. My only concern tonight is that there is a fair bit of speed drawn underneath him tonight so he will need to do everything right at box rise to cross. Top effort to qualify and deserves his spot, however I would be investing elsewhere.”
Odds to win the QLD Derby: $31 with William Hill
Box Seven – Elusive Desire
Light Brindle Dog – 30.1kg – December 2012
Cold Fusion x Elusive Angel
Trainer: Colin Graham
Career: 19:7-3-4
T/D: 16:5-3-3
T/D Best: 29.93
Career Highlights: WON Lismore 24.14, Albion Park 29.96
“Far from disgraced when placed behind Dyna Villa last week and he is my smokey for the final. He has a terrific record over this journey and he has the ability to lead or come from off the speed in his races. The pink is likely to clear him soon after box rise so that should allow him to balance up and get moving and if he hits the turn at top speed he should put himself into contention. Likely to start very big odds and is worth an each way ticket.”
Odds to win the QLD Derby: $23 with William Hill
Box Eight – Up The Attitude
Red Fawn Dog – 33.5kg – January 2013
El Grand Senor x Size It Up
Trainer: Vicki Wisener
Career: 34:10-7-4
T/D: 15:5-2-1
T/D Best: 29.96
Career Highlights: WON Ipswich 25.26, Albion Park 22.66, 29.96
“Armed with devastating speed soon after box rise and has won five races over this journey. If he was able to cross and lead clearly then he becomes a serious contender, however the two times he has broken 30 seconds here he has been able to get a cheap lead and dictate the terms. When the pressure goes on he tends to fold up and in a race like this I'm expecting there to be pressure from the outset. Unlikely to get across and therefore unlikely to feature, however he may cause some problems for Dyna Villa in the run to the first turn.”
Odds to win the QLD Derby: $41 with William Hill
Top Four: 1 – 5 – 2 – 7
Suggested Bets:
Win bet on No Donuts with William Hill
Quinella: 1 to rove with 2,5,7 ($3 for 100%)
Exacta: 1,2,5/1,2,5,7 ($9 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1/2,5,7/Field ($18 for 100%)