2015 Group 3 New Sensation tips & betting preview

THE Group 3 New Sensation series was introduced in 2013 and is a conditionally restricted race for greyhounds that were whelped on or after 14 November 2012. Greyhounds can have no more than 10 wins from 20 starts at the time of nominating. The inaugural event was won by the Jane Carruthers-trained Charmed Assassin and last year’s victor was talented Victorian sprinter Hooksy.

In the 2015 edition, NSW star sprinter No Donuts will be looking to notch up his first Group victory after finishing second in the Group 2 Richmond Derby last month. The Brad Canty-trained chaser will start from box eight where he recorded a solid 30.33 victory in a heat of the New Sensation two weeks ago. Last week saw the son of Fabregas and Chevy Princess stamp his authority on this series, blitzing his rivals by two-and-one-quarter lengths in a flying time of 29.59. He is currently the $2.05 favourite with bookmaker William Hill.

Star Torana is a Wentworth Park specialist and is yet to be beaten at the track after four starts. Last week the daughter of Collision and Redskin produced a gusty come from behind victory in 30.13, however will need to improve her box manners to challenge the leaders at the first turn in the final. She is one of two runners for Shaun Evans, his other charge Aphorism drawn ideally in box two after recording an impressive 29.84 victory in his semi-final last week. The son of Collision and Fantasy Royale lacks early pace, however charged to home to score by half a length in his win on Friday.

Estranged broke the first sectional record at Wentworth Park last week and will be on the bunny again from the inside alley tomorrow night. Clocking a blistering time of 5.22 to the first mark, the Luke Azzopardi-trained chaser was run down by Aphorism at the finish, however can get a good break on this field with his early speed.

The winner will receive $25,000, second will take home $6,250 and third will receive $3,125 for their efforts.

The Group 3 New Sensation Final is race five at Wentworth Park and will be run at 8.28pm EDST. Lets hear what Australian Racing Greyhound‘s tipster, Brad Bugeja, has to say about each runner.

Box One: Estranged
Fawn Dog – 35.5kg – June 2013
El Grand Senor x Wacky Car Races
Trainer: Luke Azzopardi
Career: 5:2-2-0
T/D: 2:0-2-0
T/D Best: 29.87
Career Highlights: WON Gosford 22.89, Wentworth Park first sectional record holder

“Set a new mark for the first section last week and with a clean getaway he should be leading for a long way again. The small concern is that in his two tries here he has exited the pink draw so it will be interesting to see how he comes out of the red. In the first round he really hit a brick wall in the run home, however last week he hit the line a lot better and his personal time was under the 29.90 mark. I think he will lead again tonight but he might just get reeled in late, must for the exotics.”

Odds to win the New Sensation: $5 with William Hill

Box Two: Aphorism
Black Dog – 33.8kg – July 2013
Collision x Fantasy Royale
Trainer: Shaun Evans
Career: 9:5-1-1
T/D: 2:1-1-0
T/D Best: 29.84
Career Highlights: WON Dapto 29.95, WON Richmond 30.57, WON Wentworth Park 29.84

“Has progressed well through this series and continues to improve with every run. Last week he stepped well and hit the first marker in 5.41, if he can reproduce that type of effort he should be able to drive through and settle on the back of the red and like last week he should prove too strong. This is clearly his toughest test to date but I think he is a real up and comer and he is in my top two picks for the final. With a few more runs under his belt I think he will be capable of matching it with the real top graders.

Odds to win the New Sensation: $7.50 with William Hill

Box Three: Irish Wip
Black & White Dog – 34.3kg – March 2013
Premier Fantasy x Whip it Up
Trainer: Jason Platts
Career: 5:1-0-2
T/D: 3:0-0-2
T/D Best: 29.86
Career Highlights: WON Canberra 25.18

“Another who lacks experience but he has shown signs that he has a heap of talent. Last week he was far from disgraced when placed behind No Donuts in ridiculously fast time and I think he will have a bright future as he steps up in distance. His first sectional of 5.55 last week probably isn’t good enough to see him being a factor in this, but if they shuffle up near the lead and a gap opens for him he might be able to sneak into a place.”

Odds to win the New Sensation: $16 with William Hill

Box Four: Lord Gee
Black Dog – 34.3kg – March 2013
El Grand Senor x Oh Em Gee
Trainer: Christine Proctor
Career: 16:7-2-2
T/D: 6:3-1-1
T/D Best: 29.73
Career Highlights: WON Maitland 22.45, WON Bulli 26.23

Has continued to improve with every run around this circuit and he appears to have really put it all together now. Last week he showed blistering speed and he set cracking sectionals when placed in his heat, on that occasion he made No Donuts work overtime for victory. If he can land behind the red early he should be a major player again. He has the luxury of a wide runner on his outside and he will get plenty of cover as they negotiate the first bend.

Odds to win the New Sensation: $4 with William Hill

Box Five: Iona Champion
Blue Fawn Bitch – 26.4kg – March 2013
Don’t Knocka Him x Charlie Cheetah
Trainer: Troy Donaldson
Career: 17:7-5-1
T/D: 5:1-2-0
T/D Best: 29.96
Career Highlights: WON Gosford 29.66, WON Gardens 29.81, WON Wentworth Park 29.96

Has the speed to match the red early and has broken 30 seconds here previously, however she really fell in a hole late last week and because she runs so wide she is likely to find the going tough. She does her best racing when on the lure and with the abundance of speed in this event I can’t see her getting a cheap lead.

Odds to win the New Sensation: $6.50 with William Hill

Box Six: Star Torana
Black Bitch – 28.1kg – June 2013
Collision x Redskin
Trainer: Shaun Evans
Career: 10:7-2-1
T/D: 4:4-0-0
T/D Best: 30.13
Career Highlights: WON Bulli 26.40, WON Wentworth Park 30.13

Unbeaten here in four runs and is blessed with terrific track sense. Last week she found a bit of trouble at the first bend, but once she was able to get to the outside and balance up she was able to work home nicely and score in 30.13. Her winning times aren’t great but she does everything right in the run and she can’t be left out of your exotic bets.

Odds to win the New Sensation: $10 with William Hill

Box Seven: Tiggerlong Katut
Black Dog – 30.2kg – December 2012
Fabregas x Tiggerlong Petal
Trainer: John Cusack
Career: 16:7-3-2
T/D: 2:0-0-1
T/D Best: 30.14
Career Highlights: WON Goulburn 26.14, WON Temora 19.08, WON Wagga 22.94, WON The Meadows 30.15, WOM Wagga 30.91

“Another front runner who showed improvement with a solid heat placing last week. He will obviously need to lead to win tonight and with the heap of speed in this event I can’t see it happening. The wide draw is also a big disadvantage and with a keen railer on his outside and a wide runner on his inside he is likely to get spat out of the back early.”

Odds to win the New Sensation: $23 with William Hill

Box Eight: No Donuts
Black Dog – 31.0kg – June 2013
Fabregas x Chevy Princess
Trainer: Bradley Canty
Career: 9:6-2-1
T/D: 3:2-1-0
T/D Best: 29.59
Career Highlights: WON Richmond 22.47, WON Maitland 24.97, WON Wentworth Park 29.59, WON Richmond 30.40

“Budding superstar and continues to get better with every run. He announced his arrival to the big stage at Richmond when he beat the classy Bad Boy Sniper on his merits in February and he has continued to impress since. Last week he had to work hard in the early stages and was posted a little wide, however he showed tremendous strength and he was able to reel in Lord Gee and post a ridiculously fast 29.59. The wide draw is a big concern tonight but if he can balance up in the top four early he may just prove too good for his rivals.”

Odds to win the New Sensation: $2.05 with William Hill

Top Four: 4 – 2 – 8 – 1

Suggested Bets:

Win bet on Lord Gee at $6 with William Hill

Boxed Quinella: 1,2,4,8 ($6 for 100%)

Exacta: 2,4/1,2,4,8 ($6 for 100%)

Trifecta: 4/1,2,8/Field ($18 for 100%)

Trifecta: 2,4,8/1,2,4,8/1,2,3,4,6,8 ($36 for 100%)

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