2015 Group Three Mandurah Mail Birthday Cup Tips

Race No. 7Mandurah Mail Birthday Cup F12:02 AM
OPENP event over 405 metres at Mandurah Of $35,625 Prizemoney.
1st: $25,000 2nd: $7,080 3rd: $3,545.

No.NameFormBestTrainer

1SIALIA162122.45Paul Stuart
2GOLDEN GOSSIP475122.50Christine Robartson
3POWERHOUSE752122.73Andrew Mclaren
4ASTROPHYSIC111122.41Paul Stuart
5MAJESTIC GEM425122.64Greg Martin
6FUN PRINCESS163222.60Lexia Isaac
7LAST DAY111122.49Christine Robartson
8WALKAWAY ABLAZE152122.55Emily Frazer
9TAKE THE DOSH411222.64Wayne Rose
10WEST ON DELLY461222.93Linda Britton

Sialia

Like most of the field she has a tremendous record here having won 11 of 20 over this track and trip. Last week she pinged away and smashed her rivals in a slick 22.66. If she can begin like that from the red she should punch through and hold them out and she is very hard to get past when on the bunny.

Golden Gossip

Loves racing over this journey but she is probably better over something a bit longer these days. She hit the line strongly to score in her heat and if she can settle in the top three early she should be in the mix again. The concern is she has lost a bit of her early zip and she may get shuffled too far back early.

Powerhouse

Classy chaser who got a bit lucky in his heat. He normally doesn’t begin that well and he is likely to get spat out the back early. Congratulations to connections for getting him to fire last week but I can’t see him repeating the dose in the final.

Astrophysic

Won 12 of 14 here and is a speed demon. The box draw hasn’t done him any favours but he has gone sub 6.60 to the first marker in six of his past seven wins. If he can step on terms he should outdrive the two dogs drawn around him and he should drop the hammer after around 40 or so metres. He will be short odds but I can’t see him finishing outside of the top two.

Majestic Gem

Had been really struggling since resuming from a spell but last week she regained some confidence when she pounced on the lure and posted a speedy 22.76 heat victory. She will need to ping and lead to win so I think her chances are limited. She obviously has the talent to win but her box manners are too inconsistent and she meets some gun speedsters in this.

Fun Princess

She is the value in the event. Last week she flew early and it took the classy Last Day an eternity to get to her. Her personal-best time when running second has her qualifying third-fastest and of all the finalists she is one of the more reliable beginners. The wide draw should suit and if she does ping away she could give the favourite a bit of a scare.

Last Day

Has won 10 of 19 over this journey and a staggering 25 of 55 overall, so it’s clear he has the class edge over his rivals. The concern I have with him is he tends to do his best racing when drawn nearer the inside and with the speedy Fun Princess drawn underneath he may get posted wide in the early stages of the race. He is a powerful sprinter and if he settles in the top three he will prove hard to stop but I wouldn’t be taking short odds about him.

Walkaway Ablaze

Faultless beginner and he has the genuine speed to cross early and will give a great sight. His last 30m isn’t great but last week he appeared to hit the line well and if he carves across early he may be off and gone with the prize as they head through the first turn. I think he is well placed in the pink and if I was to take on Astrophysic, he is the one I would be putting my money on.

Reserves

Take The Dosh

Narrowly beaten in her heat and is armed with blistering early speed, Will be fairly big odds if she lines up but because of her early speed she has legitimate place claims if she starts.

West On Delly

Highly promising speedster and she powered to the line when placed in her heat. Has won a trial here in 22.55 previously and if she was to draw the red or pink she is more than capable of scoring.

Race overview

Great line-up of speedsters and it’s hard to look past the exciting Astrophysic. He has an amazing record here and there are only two chasers in the final that have the speed to go with him in the first 50m and they aren’t drawn around him. So he should get a fairly clear passage in the early stages and with an ounce of luck he should get the cash.

Walkaway Ablaze is one of those chasers who can match him early and if the favourite happens to make a mistake I think he will be off and gone with the prize. If he goes around at silly odds he may be worth an each-way ticket.

Fun Princess was far from disgraced in her heat and she can run a cheeky race again at odds, while Sialia has the good draw and she blew her rivals away in her heat. If she can step cleanly she should give her kennelmate a run for his money.

Top Four: 4 – 8 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bets:

Trifecta: 4/1,6,8/Field ($18 for 100%)

Trifecta: 1,4,8/1,4,6,8/1,2,4,6,7,8 ($36 for 100%)

Quinella: 4 to rove with 1,6,8 ($3 for 100%)

Exacta: 1,4,8/1,4,6,8 ($9 for 100%)

The Group Three Mandurah Cup final is race seven tomorrow night (Friday) and is set to jump at 12:02am AEDT.