Nationals firm as favourites to take out Orange by-election

NATIONALS candidate Scott Barrett has firmed into $1.20 with online bookmaker Sportsbet to win the seat of Orange in Saturday’s by-election.

As of Tuesday, 75 per cent of money wagered on the Orange result had been placed on Barrett to win, despite continued criticism for the Nationals following on from a series of controversial issues.

Barrett’s price has subsequently been trimmed from $1.45.

Early money on the by-election had been with Phil Donato from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, however that money has dried up over the past few weeks, which has seen his price drift from $4 out to $11.

Orange isn’t the only by-election set to be held this weekend, with Wollongong and Canterbury residents also heading to the polling booths. Labor is expected to win both seats, represented by Paul Scully ($1.20) and Sophie Costis ($1.01) respectively.

“While all the attention is on the US election this week, NSW voters across three electorates will head to the polls this Saturday and it looks as though they will stick with the status quo,” said Sportsbet’s Ben Bulmer.

“The Nationals are near certainties to retain Orange according to punters, while Labor is tipped to maintain its vice-like grip on Wollongong and Canterbury.”

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The Orange by-election was prompted by the resignation of Nationals MP Andrew Glee, who left his seat in order to contest the federal seat of Calare, which he won.

The Nationals have held the seat since 1947 and hold it by a 21.7 per cent margin, however internal polling conducted late last month suggested the Nationals could face a swing against them of up to 18 per cent.

This is believed to have been impacted by Premier Mike Baird’s proposed merger between the Orange, Blayney and Cabonne Shire Councils.

Also touted to be a negative for the Nationals is Baird’s greyhound ban, despite the fact it was overturned in early October.

Talkback giants Alan Jones and Ray Hadley, both of whom are stark opponents of both the council mergers and the greyhound racing ban, will head to Orange this week in an attempt to apply some heat to the Nationals in the days leading up to the by-election.

Orange by-election betting market

Scott Barrett (The Nationals) – $1.20
Bernard Fitzsimon (Labor) – $4.50 with Sportsbet
Phil Donato (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers) – $11
Scott Munro (Independent) – $21
Janelle Bicknell (The Greens) – $67

Sign-up with Sportsbet and claim up to $501 in free bet bonuses.

Past Discussion

  1. after the Trump fiasco, who would believe polls?

    was told Nats are in strife with LAB/SHOOTERS joining together to suck them dry.

    and if they think the last desperate attempt to swing votes back was a good move simply by offering monies for the Orange hospital carpark,they are wrong.

    mind you the locals will take it(if they get it) and still vote the jerks out. come on Saturday.

  2. John Tracey  well the day has arrived.will be one of the most interesting elections ever where greys racing is concerned.

    but it is more than just our industry,there are so many off-shoots that have dragged regional living into the gutter.

    I predict a defeat of heavy proportions for the Nats,and it will follow in the footsteps of shock events that have been occurring throughout the world. BREXIT & TRUMP are good examples of the older peoples thoughts coming out above the youths thoughts of today.they,the elders of all countries,have had a gutful of improper actions of social caste,organised and carried out by young minds thinking there way is the way of the future. so,so wrong,as its the elders that shaped the countries of today.

    and to see youths squatting in Universities and having crying sessions because Trump defeats crooked Hilary.

    to those sobbing little spoilt twerps,kids of your age generations ago,went to war and died on war fields for the future of your country.they had not much choice,but showed courage,NOT tears.get yourselves together and become humans prepared to fight hard to hold onto what was created for you by the elders of your countries,dont sook,get up and become humans.times for spoilt brats getting their way are now over.

    and Orange election day today,will show again,that don’t mess with our elders and our countries.include them not deride them,and listen to the heart beat of the regions you inner sactum spoilt rich kids who have life so easy in comparison. don’t ruin hard working good peoples lives because you consider them slow,old,and worthless.

    Orange today,has an important part to play. lets hope that part is the way of the people who really matter in this country.

    BAIRD,take note. learn from your elders of this country. not blow hards praying with you daily in your sanctum.and they are not Aussies,so what do they know about this country.

    show ’em up people,the decision is now yours. vote accordingly.

  3. GRANT refuses to stand down!

    we will see about that. the sheer arrogance of the man.

    no wonder he moved outta town.his a marked dude.a CLINTON clone. over confidence has brought GRANT/BAIRD/NATIONALS to their knees.

    they just do not get it. so poorly advised about the power of the people as a whole.

    well, lesson 1001 is coming.

    be interesting now to see BAIRD’s reaction. one feels we just may see the real cannibal in him. will eat his own.the BACK FLIP will now be very closely monitored,and FOLEY needs to move in on BAIRD real quick and do not let his grip go slack. don’t trust BAIRD one bit,and he has such poor background support advising him,he is likely to do the unthinkable….more like a pay back to the people for THEIR disloyalty. how dare we question his manlihood.

  4. spyman, 

    I need to declare that I play a part in the Greyhound Fighting Fund Deed.

    Please find the Anthony Green’s Blog with the bi election results. Preferences  have not been distributed at Orange yet but a few things are obvious,

    As I reported earlier the leader of the nationals polling earlier in the Week showed a 15% swing away from the Nationals which would have seen them within the margin if error to hold the seat. The assessment did not appear to take in the benefit of polling stations being manned and it in my view over estimated the preference wastage. (The Nations were obviously using a over simple model to assess polling. The adjusted conservative figure should have been about 18% which put the election result into the margin of error range.

    The support for the Nationals continued to weaken and even before the Trump Victory 20% swing became likely with approx a 1% margin of error making it more difficult to call. The betting of for the shooters seemed to good to be true.

    The election of Trump which was a rural backlash in the USA had the potential to grow the percentage change in the orange Bi election further but the odds on the shooters only came in from to . I mention this because not only did the Nationals get their poling totally wrong but so did the money.

    If you compare the results of the Bi election in Wollongong with Orange, the Trump factor in Wollongong did not eventuate but it appears to have made a significant difference in Orange where some of the manned booths reported a 60% swing away from the Nationals and a large swing against them on first preferences.

    While there was a Trump factor in the election the biggest factor for the swing is the fact that 1500 volunteers manned to booths in Orange and credit must be given to the Greyhound Alliance as well as the parties and volunteers. The Alliance recommended funding for the Orange project and the arrival of the large contingent to the booths helped. Even the critics of the greyhounds involving themselves in the politics were uncomfortable with the project, it appears that the results will even give them some comfort.

  5. spyman Well i, read with interest both you and Johns comments , what i find  hard to except  that people are making comments  re polling booths and raping certain groups who i believe were missing in action on the Booths in Orange, Forbes , Parks, and other small towns.It  was the lack of so called leaders at these booths from  Groups Like the Alliance , GBOTA , are examples of what i’am saying . One Director Norm Curby can hold his head  up high some others thought it was a weekend away .Now the Group that’s been forgotten and covered Booths in Forbes 3 of  Parks 3  Orange 1 of and stood  one day on pre – poll and other small towns was the Greyhound Action Group a total of 12 members working for the SF&F party and one of them also worked the Forbes High School booth for Labor all day, I had the pleasure to also be working on the Booth at Forbes  and my day was highlighted by a visit from the Deputy Premier Troy Grant ,I confronted and  ask the QUESTION when are going to REPEAL the Greyhound Prohibition Bill 2016 and i was not surprised when he was pretending i was  not there in his space ,and listening to me,” quickly “a former Media staffer for the government working on the Booth took up the debate re the issue, then the Deputy Premier was withdrawn away quickly by his minders  surprise ,surprise !  It was also said the Action Group had Financially funded the SF&F Party, Also funded the Labor Party,how ever i did notice on Scott Munro HTV form he used the Alliance Logo ,John i ask how did he fare in the primary vote ? Well done GAG.

  6. BobWhitelaw spyman  congrats BOB and everyone who helped and attended.as a MEXICAN, it was noted interstaters also participated in helping,and once again,its the people power in great numbers and even greater support,that guided this turnover. don’t know who/what GAG is BOB,but the effort is noted I am sure.

    well there goes GRANT the magnificent. maybe you are a big ,tough fella BOB and not the usual small old frail gent like a LENNY that made him swallow his mucus and the words just would not come out.

    politicians, for the love of them. what really is their roll?i have said a million times(ok,once or twice) that as soon as a human becomes a pollie,they want their crackers(money and deals for the uninitiated)and they lose there scope and vision.i hate them to be honest because they stuff up peoples lives and lie under the cover of parliamentary priveledge.cowards I call them,and GRANTS snub to you BOB shows again,he has lost his mojo in being a communicator. to many hard days in the police force maybe?

    and JOHN, whispers are you found the old money tins in the back yard,and was fully responsible for the huge late plunge from 11’s to 4’s???don’t expect you to admit to that,but we have someone on film coming out of the local SP office with a smile on his dial. we all know that if a punter comes out smiling,they have done over the bookie, real good….lol

    well done everyone,its been a long time coming the day,but the effort was worth it.

  7. John Tracey  http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-10/nsw-crown-land-law-changes-supported-by-aboriginal-land-council/8013806

    while I have your attention John,i am very surprised not much chatter about this new BAIRD wonder idea.

    I am referring mainly to WENTY PARK,but it appears now with this new ruling,the aboriginal land rights agreements have been washed away in a sense.

    would this not be a new attack on another group of people to satisfy his march towards creating a new waterfront,unlike any we will ever see apart from EUROPE/USA?

    I see that as a slap in the face of the indisgenous peoples who should have the majority say in Crown Land developments,and why has WARREN MUNDINE been silent on this?

    and he trusts BAIRD’s word on any deals? good luck.

  8. The Greyhound Action Group was formed in 2012 to fight for a change to the unfair Inter-Code Agreement.  and are still active politically Its was GAG who first approached the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party to take up the Industries fight for a better deal and  not the GBOTA or the Alliance,  remember the NO SHOW at Christmas   2012  and we refused to race our dogs, well 96% of  us did it was GAG not the Alliance, and as well The GBOTA continued to race, whats that tell you.  It was GAG who first suggested the Rally  not   the Alliance, at first was not keen on the Idea when Baird and Grant decided close the industry.  It was GAG that went to  FOLEY and BORSAK and ask to put pressure on the Alliance to back the Rally which they eventuality did. I shirt fronted Grant yesterday and i ask again WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO REPEAL THE BILL ! his answer, i’am still waiting to hear from the GRUB..

  9. spyman BobWhitelaw Hi Spyman, the final  result is going to be close. See the Anthony Green Blog.e predicts 50.6 shooters to 49.4 Nationals ( only a handful of votes). Still either way people haqve made history with the result.

    You can follow the result updates on the above prompt (it keeps updating).

  10. after reading a snippet in the DAILY TELEGRAPH,one really has to question the mental state of TROY GRANT.

    recall him organising BADGES in his honorur?

    well now,he wants BAGGY GREEN CAPS handed out to all his NATIONALS PARTY MEMBERS if they make the parliamentary TEAM!!!!!!!!!

    is this guy that vane he misses the point that arrogance got hima nd BAIRD in this current situation? someone needs to remind him its not a SHANE WARNE……………all about me….its about politics and perceptions and doing what you are voted in for. work for the people,not reward your own self because no award exists for you. crikey this bloke needs a mental assessment quickly. take him to ORANGE HOSPITAL now that the car park is going to be fit for his worship to drive the MERC up,and get him assessed. he is a danger to himself.he needs help.

    now,what was those life line numbers again?

  11. spyman Just have to wait. The worst case prediction at the moment still has the shooter’s finishing about 200 votes ahead of the Nationals. 

    The system which allows preferences to exhaust always favours the first past the post. Also in this election the Donkey Vote 1 to 8 favours the Greens giving their preferences to the Nationals. I don’t know what their how to vote card was, they often have a range of how to vote cards to try and catch everybody but in this election their anti-country choice would probably been the Nationals.(they would hardly back a competing rising group).

    We will just have to wait. If the shooters are still in front up until tomorrow (and this seems likely) it will lesson the chances of the Deputy Premier holding on if the balance of numbers are close.

    The shooters would still be an odds on chance to win but it is close and the estimates of the final result contain guesswork.

    What is evident is that people manning the booths made a difference rather than the Trump effect.

    Either way the result is a great result for us but there is a nervous time to wait for correct weight.

  12. John Tracey spyman  lol…patience? whats that John?isnt that someone sick in hospital?

    like TROY GRANT taken to Orange Base and getting emotional that no one likes him anymore?

    the witch is dead John…part 1 out of the way,next please.(Grant quits with integrity intact he says….lol)

    great fight that is for sure John,but it is a year of UNDERDOGS getting up it seems.