Warrnambool Classic Semi Final One – 7:18PM
Clearly Phenomenal is the class act and with any sort of luck he wins clearly. My only concern tonight is the wide draw. He has been beginning much better in recent times but those were from inside draws. From boxes six to eight he has only recorded one win from nine tries.
Elite Diva is a very reliable beginner and she should once again set the pace. Her heat time of 25.67 isn’t flashy but there was a little mid race trouble in that race. Two runs back she beat a top field at Ballarat in 25.46 and a repeat of that run would see her give the favourite something to catch.
Outside of the two mentioned, there appear to be two other winning hopes. Top Innings powered to the line in his 25.37 heat win and he can show early speed at times. Sir Hugo is an interesting runner, after starting his career with 14 winless efforts, he has managed to score two impressive wins on the trot. His heat win saw him reel in the smart Benedict Geoff.
Obviously if Phenomenal gains a clear run he wins, however his past performances from outside draws indicate that he is likely to find bother. At $1.40 or shorter I reckon he is worth taking on.
Top Four: 6 – 7 – 3 – 8
Win bet on Elite Diva
Trifecta: 3,6,8/7/Field ($18 for $1)
Trifecta: 3,6,8/Field/7 ($18 for $1)
Warrnambool Classic Semi Final Two – 7:38PM
This appears to be the most intriguing Semi of the night as there appears to be four genuine winning hopes. Dream It comes off a sizzling 25.01 heat win, Ride The Rails is in consistent form and does his best racing here, the well named Scintillating looks well drawn and Benedict Geoff has the ability to cause an upset.
I’ve settled on Ride The Rails, he has won three of five tries here with a PB of 25.07. He has more than enough pace to hold out Scintillating and it’s hard to get run down when you’re running 25 flat on the lure. It’s also worth noting that two runs ago he was beaten by less than two lengths behind Black Magic Opal at Ballarat in track record time.
Scintillating is the obvious second pick for me, he tends to do his best racing from wide draws and he will improve on his first look at the track here last week. This bloke musters pace at a great rate and in his brief career to date he has set the provincial tracks alight.
Dream It looked brilliant in his heat win last week but on that occasion he pinged the lids and that is a rarity for him. I don’t think he will step like that again and he is likely to find himself buried a long way back early. He is likely to start around the $3.00 mark tonight and that is too short for me. Benedict Geoff is likely to be double figures and if you don’t like the favourites he is great value, he is armed with early speed and is only a couple lengths shy of the top three on ability, so if there is any shuffling behind he may steal the prize.
Top Four: 5 – 7 – 6 – 3
Suggested Bets: Win bets on Ride The Rails and Benedict Geoff (more on Ride The Rails)
Warrnambool Cup Heat One – 7:58PM
Superstar performer Paw Licking continues to capture country cups and tonight he should put himself in a good position to snag next week’s final. Coming off a brilliant Bendigo Cup win last Sunday, he should ping to the lead and win again tonight. ### UPDATE – PAW LICKING SCRATCHED ###
Whata Good Size has the speed to go with the favourite for a long way and he should fill the quinella spot. Prince De Galles is an interesting runner, since resuming from a spell he has scored two blistering wins at Sale and Warragul. Empire Allen is poorly drawn but with some luck early he can sneak into the minor money.
Top Four: 6 – 2 – 3 – 5
Suggested Bet: Trifecta: 6/2,3,5/1,2,3,5,7,8 ($12 for $1)
Warrnambool Classic Semi Final Three – 8:18PM
The third semi looks to be a match race between speedsters Magic Diva and Little Regus. Magic Diva is probably the fastest chaser in the state for 300 metres and in her recent wins she has recorded some ridiculous early sections and I expect her to do the same tonight. Her last 30 can be a struggle at times but she did break 25 seconds at Ballarat earlier this year.
Little Regus has really come of age lately, after a promising start to his career, he appeared to lose his way a little but he announced his return with a blistering 24.98 Shepparton win in late March. He is a much better chaser on the lure and that’s why I have given Magic Diva the edge tonight. Even if he steps on terms she is likely to burn him off in the first 50 metres. It looks a strong quinella bet.
Full Of Grace appeared to turn a few heads with a 25.07 heat win last week, tonight she will face a tougher test as there are a few more runners with early speed and she won’t be able to get things her own way. Black Foo was pretty ordinary in his heat last week, although well drawn he will still need to find plenty.
Top Four: 3 – 4 – 5 – 7
Win bet on Magic Diva
Trifecta: 3,4/3,4/Field ($12 for $1)
Warrnambool Cup Heat Two – 8:38PM
Freak talent Black Magic Opal will be looking to atone for his luckless run in last Sundays Bendigo Cup Final. He will be unbackable odds tonight but I really can’t see him being beaten. Before his last effort he had strung together three wins with two of them being in track record time, whilst the other only missed by a fraction. If he pings tonight, I’m sure he will give his kennelmates track record a nudge.
Jordan Allen looks perfectly drawn out wide and if he can follow the favourite across early, he should fill the quinella spot and add some value. Nic Nat Nui has a top record here and if he can step cleanly he may sneak into a place.
Top Four: 7 – 8 – 6 – 5
Trifecta: 7/8/1,2,4,5,6 ($5 for $1)
Trifecta: 7/5,6,8/1,2,4,5,6,8 ($15 for $1)
Warrnambool Classic Semi Final Four – 8:58PM
Group One Winner Kiss Me Ketut returned to his best with a 25.21 heat win last week, tonight he won’t get things so easy with the Darren Brown trained pair Cosmic Station and National Time both looking to cause an upset.
National Time is a very consistent chaser and he really caught the eye in his heat placing last week. After missing the start and finding bother he managed to hit the line strongly and was only beaten by four lengths in 25.07. Tonight I’m hoping he can step cleanly and if he can find the early lead he will prove very hard to run down.
Cosmic Station was never headed in his 25.22 win her two weeks ago and he is drawn to hold a prominent position in the early stages. If Kiss Me Ketut and National Time make mistakes early he will make his presence felt.
Obviously Kiss Me Ketut has the class edge but I tend to think that he is a better 500 metre chaser. Tonight he has speed drawn either side and he may not get much room to muster. Turbo Norris and Carbon Neutral have place claims at odds.
Top Four: 4 – 1 – 3 – 2
Suggested Bet: Win bet on National Time (should get around $4.50 or better).
Warrnambool Cup Heat Three – 9:18PM
Walk Hard is going to be a short priced favourite, however I think this is one of the most open races of the night. Walk Hard is an amazing talent but unfortunately poor box manners can sometimes let him down. That’s why I think the speedsters drawn out wide will dominate the race.
Take Charge has drawn perfectly in eight and with two fast beginners drawn underneath he should get a dream run across. Tonight he drops back to a more suitable trip and I think he will take some running down.
Premier Express is expected to set the pace early and if there is any trouble behind him he may get away with the prize. Mepunga Moss is another who has the ability to lead and therefore strong place claims. Walk Hard is likely to get too far back early, anchor for third and fourth in exotics.
Top Four: 8 – 7 – 3 – 6
Win bets on Take Charge and Premier Express.
First Four: 6,7,8/2,6,7,8/3/Field ($22.50 for 50c)
First Four: 6,7,8/2,6,7,8/Field/3 ($22.50 for 50c)
Warrnambool Cup Heat Four – 9:38PM
Ronan Izmir has a top 25.01 PB here and he is unbeaten in three tries. He comes into this after being desperately unlucky in the final of the Bendigo Cup on Sunday. After stepping on terms he looked to challenge for the lead before finding trouble, he would have been in the finish if he didn’t find bother. Tonight he should pounce on the early lead and prove too strong.
Deadly Vane was runner up in Sundays Bendigo Cup final but from the middle draw tonight I don’t think he will be able to reel in Ronan Izmir. He can be hit or miss at box rise and he will need to do everything right. Very Bitta comes here with strong SA form and Quara Bale has won six of her past eight in smart style.
Top Four: 2 – 3 – 4 – 5
Suggested Bet: Win bet on Ronan Izmir, snap up the even money.
Warrnambool Cup Heat Five – 9:57PM
The Jason Thompson trained Innocent Til has scored three brilliant metro wins on the trot and tonight he drops back to a more suitable distance. This star chaser is blessed with an amazing turn of foot and with slow beginners drawn outside he should get every chance to fire to the early lead.
Veyron Bale turned in a huge performance when placed behind Black Magic Opal in a heat of the Bendigo Cup and tonight he will exit his favourite draw. If he gets a clear run early he should be in the mix. Dr. Don is a highly promising chaser but I think he may need a little more time before he is ready to take on this class.
Top Four: 6 – 8 – 2 – 5
Trifecta: 6/2,5,8/1,2,3,4,5,8 ($15 for $1)
Trifecta: 6/8/Field ($6 for $1)