Race 5 – 650M Special Event – 8:18PM
I’ve settled on something at a bit of value. Tarks Nemesis has produced three brilliant efforts over the 500m journey of late and she should be suited by the step up to 650m. He recent racing over 500m should have sharpened her up and she should be able to settle in the first two as they head through the first bend. She has previously won over the staying journey and I’m sure top trainer Angela Langton will have her primed to run the trip out strongly.
Jeff The Tipster has won his past seven starts in great style and he is a deserved favourite. The draw will also work in his favour and he has won seven races at 600m and beyond. Tonight my only concern is that he meets a field with quite a lot of depth and there appears to be a fair bit of early speed drawn underneath. Obviously if he gets through the first turn unscathed he will take some beating, however at the odds on quote I would be willing to risk him.
Break O’day and Supersonic Hawk are the two run on types in the event and both must be included in your exotics. Break O’day is a great dog to anchor for third and fourth. Zipping Joe is talented but he makes too many mistakes for my liking.
Top Four: 3 – 7 – 2 – 5
Suggested Bet: Each Way Tarks Nemesis, rove in quinella with 2,5,7.
Race 6 – 450M Group Two Warrnambool Cup Final – 8:48PM
In form trainer Jason Thompson looks to have a stranglehold on the final, however I think his second stringer may be the one to get the job done. Ronan Izmir has been an amazing chaser throughout his career and he has continued to improve in his four runs from a spell. He has won eight of his nine tries from the red draw and he should have sufficient speed to punch through and lead initially. He should be around the $4.50 mark and that is enormous value.
Black Magic Opal will be starting a short price favourite and if he pings the lids he is most likely going to score, however from the middle pin he can’t afford to make any mistakes. Last week he looked ultra impressive when leading all the way and giving his kennelmates track record an almighty shake. He needs to be included in your exotic bets but at the $1.80 quote he is no good thing.
Walk Hard was desperately unlucky in his heat and the abundance of early speed in this event should work in his favour. There aren’t many chasers that can hit the line like this bloke and all he needs is an ounce of luck to feature. He has broken 25 seconds in two of his wins here, he just needs luck in the early stages. Deadly Vane is the only other winning chance, he is well drawn out wide and should get a nice cart across early from Black Magic Opal.
Top Four: 1 – 7 – 5 – 6
Suggested Bet: Win bets on Ronan Izmir and Walk Hard (more on Ronan Izmir)
Race 7 – 450M Special Event – 9:18PM
The third leg of the quaddie sees an even bunch of speedsters do battle. Track specialist Ride The Rails looks a quality bet for mine. He was luckless last week in a semi of the Warrnambool Classic and tonight from his good draw he should get every chance to atone for that effort. He has won here in a scorching 25.07 and he also broke 25 seconds when narrowly beaten in March. There is a lot of early speed drawn in the middle, so if he can step on terms he should get plenty of room to muster speed and he should take control mid race. If you can get $3.50 or better, jump all over it.
Question Bale has led in seven of his past eight tries and I would expect him to be one of the pacesetters again. He has been racing in good company of late but when Ride The Rails applies some pressure mid race, he may have trouble keeping up. The quinella spot looks to be a safe bet with him as he will be in the race early.
Ozzie Bullet is the run on dog in the race. He hit the line strongly in a heat of the Warrnambool Cup last week and tonight he should appreciate the drop in class. I don’t think he can win because he will get a long way back early, but he should be able to run over the top of some tiring chasers in the home straight.
Top Four: 8 – 3 – 2 – 7
Suggested Bet: Win bet on Ride The Rails.
Race 8 – 450M Group Two Warrnambool Classic Final – 9:48PM
After two rounds of fierce competition, it is great to see that the majority of the major players have progressed to the final. Tonight’s final sees three of the state’s fastest beginners do battle and I think whoever gets through the first bend in front will steal the prize.
The Darren Brown trained Magic Diva has set the country circuit alight in recent months and she has maintained that hot form throughout this series. Easily the country’s most reliable beginner, I am expecting her to pounce on the early lead and get away with the rich final. Although she was run down in her heat, tonight’s race should have a little more trouble in behind the leaders and she should be able to establish a bigger break in the early stages.
Little Regus looked mighty impressive in his 25.20 heat win and he is expected to start favourite, the only negative against him tonight is that there appears to be a lot of speed drawn on both sides and he can’t afford to make any mistakes at box rise. If he pings then he will definitely be fighting out the finish.
Cosmic Station may be the surprise packet, he has had little luck in his two heat runs and from his good draw he may be in a prominent position as they head into the first bend. At double figure odds, he is worth a saver bet. Dream It will start equal favourite but he is going to be under the odds. He has scored two fantastic heat wins but both times he pinged the lids and avoided bother. Normally a slow beginner, he may find it tough negotiating his way through traffic in the early stages.
Top Four: 5 – 8 – 2 – 7
Suggested Bet: Win bets on Magic Diva and Cosmic Station.
3,7/1,5,6,7/3,5,7,8/2,5,7,8 ($64 for 50c)
2,3,4,5,7/1,5,6,7/8/2,5,7,8 ($80 for $1)
2,3,4,5,7/1/3,8/2,5,7,8 ($40 for $1)