Our resident tipping expert has run his eye over the six heats for the night, providing tips and top four chances for each race.
This race is extremely open and there are quite a few ways that is could unfold. Simpatico loves racing here and is all class, but she has been missing the kick of late. I’ve given the edge to the eight, Tobias Rumble. He is well drawn out wide and Simpatico should give him a great cart across in the run to the first turn. He lacks the overall class of some of his rivals, but he is racing in great form at present and he should be good value.
Tear Away Size is the interesting runner, she has scored some dazzling wins here, but in recent times she has had her problems. She comes here after a month off and I’m sure she should be primed for a bold showing and she would have had a look at the track in the lead up to this event. Simpatico needs no introduction. If she comes out running she will cross easy and win, however, she has been doing a lot wrong in recent weeks and she can’t afford to make too many mistakes tonight. Elusive Desire and Hougenie both need to be respected. They have been class chasers for quite some time and they are always competitive in these types of races.
Top Four: 8 – 3 – 5 – 7
Another very open race and I think we can find some value again with the highly talented Oxley Rubey. She isn’t blessed with great early speed, but she is extremely strong and she is capable of reeling off impressive sectionals when given clear galloping room. There is quite a bit of early speed in this event, so I’m expecting there to be a fair bit of shuffling up front and that should allow her to settle a little closer than normal. She is going to be very big odds but she is definitely worth an each way ticket.
Fantastic Spiral is an enormous talent and with a clear passage he would put a space in this field. The big concern with him is that he tends to do his best racing when on the lure and with the speed in one, two, five and six, he is likely to be posted wide for most of the journey. Mincin’ Machine has been a little inconsistent in recent months, but he is a super talent when on song and if he can step cleanly from the red he should have the speed to hold them out. This is clearly his toughest test so the last 30m is the slight concern. Pikelet rounds out the serious chances, she has a terrific record here and she returned to form with a strong 30.13 win here last week.
Top Four: 3 – 7 – 1 – 8
Flash Reality is the local champ and in recent weeks he has returned to his brilliant best with a record breaking run at Ipswich over the 431m journey. From the pink draw tonight he should step on terms but I expect him to then explode and he should put a space in them in the early stages. If he reproduces his Ipswich effort he should be running around the 29.70 mark and that will see him win with ease.
Frattini is an interesting runner. She has been struggling in recent times, but there is no doubting that she is a star talent when on her game. She finds herself in a race which lacks genuine speed outside of the favourite, so if she can do everything right at box rise she should balance up in a forward position. Inspector Cloud won four on the trot here in October and the most recent of those wins was in a dazzling 29.85. If he reproduces that type of effort, he should put plenty of pressure on the favourite. Serene Star rounds out the chances. She is rising in class, but she has a big engine and she is drawn to run a bottler.
Top Four: 8 – 2 – 6 – 1
Bessy Boo has been a great chaser for a long time now and he is going as well as ever at present. The awkward draw shouldn’t pose too many problems as I am expecting him to miss away and that should allow him to drop onto the rail and settle mid field. There is a heap of speed in boxes one to four, so they should bunch up a little and that will make his job a lot easier to round them up.
Cash In Motion recently won the Group Two Ipswich Cup and she followed that effort up with a blistering 29.89 victory here, the rails draw ill definitely suit but I’m a little concerned about the speed drawn around her. Cervelo is a faultless beginner and two starts back she posted a scorching 30.33 Ipswich win, if she can kick through and hold them out, she will prove extremely hard to reel in. Reshuffle is the interesting runner, she has only had the two starts for two dynamic wins, however this is a big rise in class and I’m just not sure if she is ready for it.
Top Four: 5 – 1 – 3 – 2
Norm The Storm is an absolute beast and he has finally drawn a decent box. I’m expecting the red to fire out and he should set a cracking pace, that should allow Norm to drive through at the first bend and he should be in the top three as they head for the back straight. Once in the open he is one of the fastest chasers in work and he only needs an ounce of luck to score.
Macnivek is racing in career best form and he appears to have improved a length or so in recent weeks. From the red he should get every chance to assume control early and he has proven to be a very hard chaser to get past when on the lure. If Norm is close, I would expect him to get reeled in, however if Norm finds trouble he should be able to steal the prize. Clash Of Kings is the interesting chaser, he is blessed with a heap of talent and being fresh he might actually ping the lids. He is capable of going around the 29.80 mark untouched, so if he goes around at silly odds he might be worth an each way ticket.
Top Four: 2 – 1 – 5 – 7
The final heat sees last week’s Melbourne Cup Champ Dyna Double One go around. He is going to be unbackable odds and although he should win, I’m not convinced that he is a moral. He is the current track record holder here and if guaranteed a clear run, he will probably break his own record, however he has a wide runner drawn directly underneath and there is a heap of speed drawn in four, five and six, so if he makes any mistakes early he may get crunched and spat out the back. The odds say he should win and fingers crossed he does as it will make for a great final, however I do think he is a slight risk in this event.
Sheza Keen Size is normally a faultless beginner and she will be running around the 29.95 mark on the lure. Clearly Dyna can go a lot faster but she will be out on her own in front and she may steal a nice lead mid race, so she will take some catching. Cyndie’s Magic is better suited to a longer journey but from the red draw she might begin a little better than normal and with a wide runner on her outside, she will get every chance to slip through at the first corner. She will need to be at her best to win but she could be the value bet. Fantastic Sid is the interesting runner, he was never at his best when in Victoria, however he returned to his original trainer last time out and he turned in a mighty effort when placed at Bulli last time, if he gets across early he might run a monster race.
Top Four: 3 – 4 – 1- 6
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