Welcome to Australian Racing Greyhound’s free Greyhound Racing Tips for Wednesday 11th March 2009. Last night’s Tips were to say the least a disaster, giving back a lot of the ground we’d made over the previous two nights. And while a couple of the tips were unlucky, it was more a case of poor fields and interference plagued racing on inferior greyhound tracks which caused the blowout.
Our two winners won well, namely Burra Bye and Lochinvar Milano but both started shorter than expected. Of the beaten brigade Lochinvar Polo was desperately unlucky, getting carted off the course on more than two occassions and still running a close third, he is the only addition to the Australian Racing Greyhound Specials.
Although both runners at Lismore went poorly, I am prepared to forgive them that run based on the track bias, but I will say that Nigel should only ever be backed from an inside box as he crashed hard left last night at box rise costing himself any chance.
The only addition to the NTBBA File is poor old Matching Outcome. Clearly the heart is still willing but he is being held back from his best by his past injuries and can’t make ground through corners or accelerate hard enough to take runs in the straights, and a win seems unlikely anytime soon.
Of course where there are losers, there are always winners and those laying our Tips on Betfair were again on good terms with themselves and although many of our beaten brigade were at odds, the “layers” made another profit on the night to go to a 6% overall ROI.
Ballarat is one of the fairest one turn tracks in the country and in general punters can bet with confidence over all distances, although inside boxes are slightly favoured and the 8 box races well off the 450m start. The track suits both speedy and strong greyhounds.
Warrnambool was redeveloped in 2008 to remove much of the bias and interference that occured on the old “egg” shaped track. Unfortunately while inteference has been reduced, “transition turns” have turned the track in to a leader biased procession. In almost all races the winner comes from the greyhound in front about 50m from the boxes. Only strong railing greyhounds can make ground from behind and wide runners are decidedly disadvantaged. The red box is favoured over all distances.
The Gardens is one of New South Wales’ newest tracks and now the sole home of the NSW NCA. The track strongly favours early speed dogs but the 413m races should be avoided at all costs as they are decided more by interference than ability.The 515m races are worth betting on but the inside 3 boxes are all favoured and even good dogs will find it hard to cross from wide draws. The 600m trip, being a corner, start can often pose a difficult greyhound betting option and the inside box is a huge advantage. Few races are run of the 715m journey.
Ipswich can be a punters graveyard and as a general rule punters avoid investing in the 431m races unless you are laying them on Betfair, as the corner starts throws up many unlikely winners and lots of interference. If you must bet on these races, box 1 wins almost twice as many races as every other box with the exception of the second best box, box 2. The 520m races are a little more even, but have a decided bias toward the four inside boxes due to the short run to the corner and even class greyhounds find it hard to win from wide boxes. The 630m races are another corner start.
Cannington is one of the better two tracks which does tend to give greyhounds off the speed a chance to run on. Both the 530m, and 642m distances favour the inside boxes and the 1 box has a slight advantage over the 715m distance. The 297m races,starting at the top of the back straight, runs reasonably fairly, although box 1 is an advantage. The four inside boxes are advantaged over the 530m, the three inside boxes over the 642m and the 715m races reasonably evenly.
Ballarat – Race 6 – Box 1 – Eskimo Maggie
Drawn in the one box Eskimo Maggie has exceptional red box credentials, having exited from there 7 times for 6 wins; and on the track at Ballarat, she’s had 3 starts for 1 win and 1 placing. A last start Bendigo winner, leading all the way in 24.34, this daughter of Elite State ~ Shannah Widd should lead and win.
Ballarat – Race 8 – Box 1 – Betty Boo
Trained by John Galea and a daughter of Elite State ~ Same View, Betty Boo has had 8 career starts for 7 wins and 1 placing. She easily won her heat of this race last week runing a best of night 25.46, winning by 6 lengths. Starting from box 1 and possessing brilliant early pace, she won’t be beaten.
Warrnambool – Race 1 – Box 6 – Metro Station
Locally trained Metro Station is a brother to the speedy Katja and Tad Rusty being Bond ~ Kikiku. This maiden race is not strong and the breed are normally quick beginners. With slow starters boxed all around him, Metro Station should be able to lead this field and that is usually all it takes at Warrnambool.
Warrnambool – Race 4 – Box 8 – Georgia Rhode
The Norm McCullagh trained Georgia Rhode is a litter sister to Horsham VBIS Finalist Extreme Rhode and will be ideally suited by the pink box in this very average maiden race. McCullagh’s dogs are normally very well schooled at Warrnambool and the breed tend to prefer an outside draw. Won’t have to be anything special to win this but is bred to be more than handy.
Warrnambool – Race 7 – Box 2 – Cordozar
Speedy Cordozar has won 3 of his 7 career starts with 4 placings and is well boxed in box two for this race. A greyhound with good early pace, Cordozar put 2 wins back to back at Warragul and Sale leading all the way from similar boxes. With a slow beginner in box 1 and the only other likely leader boxed outside him, Cordozar should hold the rail and the lead and prove to quick for these.
Warrnambool – Race 8 – Box 1 – Lynlea Zac
Lynlea Zac has recently shown a new zest for racing and has been flying the boxes and recorded good wins in best of the night at his past 2 outings at Ballarat (25.35) and here at Warrnambool (25.82). Normally preferred off a wide draw, Warrnambool favours box 1 runners and Lynlea Zac has a suprisingly good record from the red box for 3 starts, 2 wins and 1 placing. Will just need a little luck early with all the pace drawn in the inside 3 boxes.
Warrnambool – Race 10 – Box 1 – Jay Bartel
Drawn this inside box after a good debut win over the 480m at Horsham and then having no luck in his Semi Final of the VBIS Maiden Series at the same track a week later, Jay Bartel looks well boxed in box 1 and should prove far too good here. With 4 slow beginners to his outside there is no reason this greyhound shouldn’t lead or take the sit behind Unstoppable or Exotic Rhode and rail home over the top of them.
Warrnambool – Race 11 – Box 2 – Miss Fluffy
Another Phil Lenehan (of Elektra fame) trained greyhound, Miss Fluffy has been quietly racking up the wins and has now started 5 times for 3 wins and 1 second. With an imaccualate record of 2 starts for 2 wins on the track and a best of 22.47, this greyhound is worth dabbling in a 390m race for, and should appreciate the box 2 draw. Having led easily at her last start here running a flying 8.59 early, there is nothing else in this race which can run that split early.
The Gardens – Race 5 – Box 6 – Miss Elly Mint
The Australian consecutive TAB wins record holder resumes here after being defeated when looking for win number 17 in a row. A winner of 38 of her 59 starts with a further 11 placings, Miss Elly Mint finds herself in a very average 413m non-grade event fresh from a short spell. A graded certainty, she makes it worth dabbling in these corner start races at The Gardens.
Ipswich – Race 10 – Box 8 – Pop Culture
The Christine Robartson trained Pop Culture (Collision ~ new Guess) was had 4 starts at the Ipswich track for 2 wins and 1 placing through the Vince Curry Memorial Series and was a last start 7th in the Vince Curry Memorial Consolation Final after striking inteference at box rise when trying to get to the rail. Not extremely well boxed out in 8, the small field brings Pop Culture in to consideration. Clearly not the same greyhound if not able to lead, he is worth another chance with the scratchings, but if he can’t win this, then he is headed to the NTBBA File.
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NTBBA File (Never To Be Backed Again)
Me Boss (New South Wales)
Bikini Beach (Queensland)
Autumn Honey Bee (New South Wales)
Teaman Titch (Victoria)
More Than Ready (Victoria)
Facial (ACT/New South Wales
Australian Racing Greyhound Specials (Follow Up On Them Next Start)
Special Sign (Albion Park)
Physical (Dapto, Bulli, Richmond)
Punk Appeal ( > 600m races)
Cyclone Ned (Victoria)
Uno Express (Victoria)
Tearaway Tanya (New South Wales)
Sardius (Victoria – short races / wide draws)
Lochinvar Polo (New South Wales)