Lismore Cup 2015 – free value tips and best bookmaker odds
SOME of the best chasers in the Norther Rivers region will contest Friday's Group 2 Lismore Cup over 520 metres, with the Terence Jordan-trained Lachie Lyndan one of the main favourites with punters.
The son of Dyna Lachlan and Miss Kay Tee, a $7.50 shot with Bet365, will jump from box three in the $40,000 feature, following a strong 30.19 heat victory last week.
That win was its third in succession and 14th overall at start 29, with Jordan very happy with the form of his gun runner going into the decider.
“He is ticking over very nicely – if every dog could win 50 per cent of their starts you would be very happy – it is a very good record,” Jordan said.
Jordan believes his greyhound will have to find a couple of lengths in order to take out the Cup, but says that he is capable of doing so on Friday from a suitable draw.
“I think he needs to go a bit quicker to win it – his best at Lismore is 30.14 – so he probably needs to go about two lengths better, but he has only had three wins over the track and distance, so I do think he has a little bit of improvement left in him.
“We would have been suited better out wide, but he is probably well-boxed. The dogs around him are probably a little bit slower early than what he is.”
Lachie Lyndan's biggest threats according to Jordan will be the talented dup Simpatico (box six) and Miner's Moss (box seven), the latter will be aiming to secure his 44th career win at start 104.
“I am a bit worried about the pace in the six, seven and eight – I think they may cause a little bit of a jam up on the first corner.
“I think Simpatico is the dog to beat – she is only a little bitch – if she doesn't get knocked around she will be hard to beat, but Miner's Moss just keeps on turning up and he keeps on winning – they have done a terrific job with him.”
The Group 2 Lismore Cup is race eight on the card on Friday night and is set to jump at 9:38pm.
2015 Group 2 Lismore Cup – 520 metres
Box One – War Picture
Black Dog – 33.0kg – January 2013
College Causeway x Sheeza Picture
Prize money: $28,209
Trainer: Mark Wilkes
Career: 38: 12-5-6
T/D: 15: 6-3-3
T/D Best: 30.05
“Has a great record over this track and trip and although I would prefer him drawn out wide, he is still a great chance. Last week he didn't have a lot of luck at the first bend but he hit the line well and he should be able to improve on that performance. Might struggle to win this event but he is a must for your exotic bets.”
Odds to win the Lismore Cup: $13 with Bet365
Box Two – Kingsbrae Nelly
Black Bitch – 25.9kg – March 2013
Bralyn County x Kingsbrae Sam
Prize money: $14,455
Trainer: Toni Northfield
Career: 31: 8-2-2
T/D: 7: 3-0-1
T/D Best: 30.23
“Reliable beginner and she caught the eye when winning her last week in a handy 30.32. The overall time is clearly slower than the more fancied runners but she is a lid pinger and she could give a bold sight out on the lure. The last 30m is a slight concern but if they mix up behind her she might steal the prize.”
Odds to win the Lismore Cup: $15 with Sportsbet
Box Three – Lachie Lyndan
Black Dog – 32.3kg – February 2013
Dyna Lachlan x Miss Kay Tee
Prize money: $20,570
Trainer: Terence Jordan
Career: 29: 14-4-2
T/D: 5: 3-0-1
T/D Best: 30.14
“Star local chaser who isn't without a hope but he will need to do everything right in the initial stages. Last week he showed great mid race speed when posting a smart 30.19 win and if he can settle in the top three again he should make his presence felt. Has two slow beginners drawn directly outside, so he should get a few favours early in the race.”
Odds to win the Lismore Cup: $7.50 with Bet365
Box Four – Head Shy
Black Dog – 31.6kg – March 2013
Head Bound x Poppy's Secret
Prize money: $13,715
Trainer: Francis Jamieson
Career: 29: 11-4-6
T/D: 9: 4-2-3
T/D Best: 30.12
“Has a big engine and although he is enormous odds he does have a chance to cause an upset. He loves racing around this circuit and I'm expecting there to be a fair bit of trouble up front so, if he can settle just behind them in the early stages, the gaps should open mid race and he will be there to pounce as they turn for home.”
Odds to win the Lismore Cup: $13 with William Hill
Box Five – Fabulous Storm
Black Dog – 31.7kg – February 2014
Fabregas x Whirly Storm
Prize money: $173,704
Trainer: Reg Hazelgrove
Career: 44: 12-9-11
T/D: 1: 0-1-0
T/D Best: 30.41
“Classy when right but at the moment he appears to be racing a little below his best. Last week he settled near the speed and, if that was the case a few months back, he would have won in convincing style, however, he was unable to reel the winner in. From the middle pin he is likely to get squeezed out early and I can't see him making an impact.”
Odds to win the Lismore Cup: $17 with Bet365
Box Six – Simpatico
Black Bitch – 24.2kg – July 2013
Magic Sprite x Absolute Style
Prize money: $44,324
Trainer: Glenn Smith
Career: 20: 13-3-1
T/D: 1: 0-1-0
T/D Best: 30.24
“Absolute freak but her box manners can be very costly at times. Last week she missed the kick and found bother soon after when placed behind Miners Moss. If she comes out running she will cross and lead and win, quite simple, however if she slightly misses it she will be bumping heavily with Miners Moss in the run to the first turn and they are both likely to be put out of the race. I really don't like the box draw so I can't tip her with any confidence.”
Odds to win the Lismore Cup: $2.65 with William Hill
Box Seven – Miner's Moss
Black Dog – 32.5kg – June 2011
Magic Sprite x Bellbird Park
Prize money: $98,016
Trainer: Mathew Reid
Career: 103: 43-13-11
T/D: 14: 6-1-2
T/D Best: 29.98
“Has been a class chaser for a long time and he was super impressive when scoring here last week in 29.98. He was easily the fastest heat winner, however I don't think he can win tonight. If Simpatico pings and leads, he won't be able to reel her in and if she misses away he is likely to bump into her soon after the start. Will start the favourite but I think he is the lay of the night.”
Odds to win the Lismore Cup: $2.60 with Sportsbet
Box Eight – Hopping Houdini
Black Dog – 32.6kg – July 2012
Black Houdini x Mary Hoppins
Prize money: $41,560
Trainer: Amy O'Reilly
Career: 58: 16-9-9
T/D: 1: 1-0-0
T/D Best: 30.50
“Fast beginner and he has scored two wins in a row over this distance range, however he is much better suited back to a shorter trip and from the pink draw he is likely to end up in the car park at the first bend. Great effort to qualify but will find the going tough from out here.”
Odds to win the Lismore Cup: $21 with Bet365
Top Four: 4 – 3 – 2 – 1
You probably think I am crazy because I have left the two favourites out, however I just think they are going to put each other out of contention at the first bend and therefore there is a heap of value drawn nearer the inside.
Suggested Bets:
Win bet on Lachie Lyndan
Each Way bet on Head Shy
Boxed Quinella: 1,2,3,4 ($6 for 100%)
Exacta: 2,3,4/1,2,3,4 ($9 for 100%)
Trifecta: 2,3,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5,6 ($27 for 100%)