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Leg 1: 4 – Leg 2: 3 – Leg 3: 1,3,4,5,7 – Leg 4: 1,5 – $10 for 100%
Best Bets: With three best bets, it’s a great night to cash in your $700 free bet at Sportingbet.
Race 5: Hostile
Race 6: Dyna Kayla
Race 11: Lamia Bale
Race 12: Velocemente
1st: $5,000 2nd: $1,430 3rd: $720.
Thoughtful Wish has been racing in much stronger company of late and she is drawn to get the perfect sit behind the early leaders. Her recent form isn’t too flashy but she’s having her third run from a spell and should be ready to fire. She has raced well here in the past, placing in seven of her eight tries over this trip. She is going to settle mid pack but there are a few runners who will struggle to run out the trip.
Viral Bale has a heap of talent and if he could get away on terms with them he would take a power of beating. He has been missing the kick of late and storming home in his races. He’s going to need luck again but may be over the odds. Aerial Blitz scored a strong 30.03 win here a couple of weeks ago and he has the speed to lead. His last 30m isn’t the strongest but if he pings the lids and there is a shuffle up behind, him he may just steal the prize.
Top Four: 3 – 6 – 4 – 2
Each way Bet on Thoughtful Wish
Boxed Quinella: 3,4,6 ($3 for 100%)
Exacta: 3,4,6/2,3,4,6 ($9 for 100%)
Trifecta: 3,4,6/3,4,6/2,3,4,6,7,8 ($24 for 100%)
Trifecta: 3/2,4,6/Field ($18 for 100%)
1st: $5,000 2nd: $1,430 3rd: $720.
Jubilea Bale looks well placed in the pink draw and if she can repeat her recent 30.45 winning effort at Cranbourne, she will take a power of beating. She is normally very quick to begin and instead of crashing to the rail, she should hold her line into the first turn. With a slow beginner drawn underneath and a PB here of 29.57, it really is hard to see her being beaten if she gets away on terms with the rest of the field.
Gorham Bale is an enormous talent but he can be hard to follow at times. Four starts ago he set the track alight here with a 29.42 win but since then he has continued to find trouble in his races. Being a wide runner, the wide draw should suit but he will still need an ounce of luck as they head into the first bend. Hello Stranger caught the eye with an all the way Meadows win last week in 30.35 and if he repeats that performance he should be in the mix for a long way. Of the others, Say Again is much better than his recent form suggests and with some breaks in running he may just cause an upset.
Top Four: 8 – 7 – 3 – 4
Win bet on Jubilea Bale
Boxed Quinella: 3,4,7,8 ($6 for 100%)
Trifecta: 7,8/3,4,7,8/1,3,4,5,7,8 ($36 for 100%)
Exacta: 7,8/3,4,7,8 ($6 for 100%)
1st: $6,120 2nd: $1,750 3rd: $875.
Shall She Rock has relished the rise up to 700m of late and she looked ultra impressive when beating a smart field at The Meadows on Saturday night. From the red draw tonight she should have sufficient speed to poke through and lead at the first bend and from there on she should control the race. She has won here previously in 42.01 but I think if she leads she is capable of going well under the 42 second barrier.
Penance Allen had little luck in her staying debut last week and she should be much better for the run. Three starts ago she smashed her rivals when winning here over 595m in 34.35 and she gave every indication that this trip is what she is looking for. Newfire Riley is a veteran chaser but he is still going fairly well. Seven of his eleven career wins have come from inside draws, so he should have no troubles from the two box. Liara Allen rounds out the winning chances, she has been placed in all three of her tries over this journey, however I don’t believe she is a true stayer and the last 50m is always going to be a struggle for her.
Top Four: 1 – 3 – 2 – 7
Trifecta: 1/2,3,7/Field ($18 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1/2,3,7/2,3,7 ($6 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1,2,3/1,2,3/1,2,3,5,6,7 ($18 for 100%)
Exacta: 1,3/1,2,3 ($4 for 100%)
Quinella: 1 to rove with 2 & 3 ($2 for 100%)
1st: $7,200 2nd: $2,060 3rd: $1,025.
Groove Girl has been racing in tremendous form lately and she should be able to make up for her luckless heat effort here last week. Four starts ago she powered to the line when scoring a sizzling 29.52 win here over the shorter trip and if she can begin like she did on that occasion she should be able to get the job done here. Her box manners can bring her undone on occasions but I’m willing to give her the benefit of the doubt tonight.
Atlas Genius has the perfect draw and he showed brilliant mid race dash when scoring a 34.60 heat win. He generally musters pace quickly and he tends to do his best racing over this journey, if he can steer clear of trouble early he should be in the finish. Dewana Lass always seems to find excuses and being a wide runner, I would expect her to find bother again from the red tonight. Having said that, I still think she is good enough to balance up and run on into a place. Oscar Keeping is the smokey, he is capable of reeling off brilliant sectionals and he only needs a few gaps to open at the right time for him to make an impact.
Top Four: 4 – 8 – 1 – 5
Win bets on Groove Girl and Atlas Genius (more on Groove Girl)
Boxed Quinella: 1,4,5,8 ($6 for 100%)
Exacta: 1,4,8/1,4,5,8 ($9 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1,4,8/1,4,5,8/1,4,5,6,7,8 ($36 for 100%)
1st: $5,320 2nd: $1,520 3rd: $760.
Hostile is an enormous talent and with the speedy Blinder drawn underneath he should get every chance to score. Two starts ago he smashed the clock when scoring at Cranbourne in a breathtaking 29.78 and he has shown in the past that if he is given room in the first 40m he is almost unbeatable. He is yet to really be compared to some of the real fast top liners but I think in a couple of months he will be a major player in the carnival here.
Allen Malik has been racing in consistent fashion of late and although I think he is a better dog on the one turn tracks, he should still be able to make an impact here. From the pink he should get enough room to muster speed and he will look to make his move mid race. Blinder should set the pace for the first 100m and after Hostile heads her, she should still be able to hold on for a place. Sonic Pirate is the interesting runner, three starts ago he was brilliant behind Eliza Blanche and a similar performance tonight would see him maybe cause an upset.
Top Four: 4 – 8 – 3 – 5
Trifecta: 4/3,5,8/Field ($18 for 100%)
Trifecta: 3,4,8/3,4,8/1,2,3,4,5,8 ($24 for 100%)
Exacta: 4/3,5,8 ($3 for 100%)
Quinella: 4 to rove with 3,5,8 ($3 for 100%)
1st: $12,000 2nd: $3,500 3rd: $1,750.
Dyna Kayla is all class and she returned to her brilliant best with a slick 42.11 heat win last week. After pinging the lids, she quickly bounded to the early lead and her lead continued to grow as she passed each marker. Tonight’s event has a little more depth but if she happens to ping again she should dominate this field and I’m tipping she can even go sub 41.80.
Dewana Babe continues to improve and impress, after scoring a sizzling 650m Sale win, she followed up with two smart metro wins. Last week she led from go to whoa and in the process she reeled off very zippy sectionals. With Dyna Kayla in the race, she is unlikely to get things her own way in front and I think the quinella spot is more likely. Lady Toy will run all day and she should pick off the stragglers as they round for home, she isn’t quite brilliant enough to go with the two favourites but she always finds the line strongly and if there is trouble in front she will look to capitalise late in the race. Allen Wake rounds out the top four, he hit the line strongly when scoring in his heat and he has the benefit of the red draw tonight.
Top Four: 3 – 7 – 5 – 1
Trifecta: 3/7/1,5 ($2 for 100%)
Trifecta: 3/7/Field ($6 for 100%)
Trifecta: 3/1,5,7/Field ($18 for 100%)
Quinella: 3 to rove with 1,5,7 ($3 for 100%)
1st: $6,120 2nd: $1,750 3rd: $875.
Dyna Orion has experienced a little more luck in recent weeks and if he can reproduce the effort which saw him win at The Meadows in 34.81, he will prove extremely hard to hold out. I am expecting him to drop out in the early stages but with at least four possible leaders I am expecting there to be quite a bit of bumping up front. At around the $6 mark I think he is fantastic each way value.
Flying Twist returned to her brilliant best with a slick 30.14 Meadows win last week and if she can get a cheap lead tonight she will prove hard to reel in. The only risk in this event is that there is a heap of early speed drawn underneath and she may be posted a little wide in the early stages of the race. Miss Society is another likely leader and surprisingly two runs ago she hung in forever after being headed early in the event. I still have my doubts about her running a strong 595m but if she punches through and holds them out, she is likely to finish in the top three. Bazza’s Gift could also be worth a saver bet, he is more than capable on his night and he is likely to be over the odds.
Top Four: 5 – 4 – 1 – 3
Win bet on Dyna Orion (saver bet on Bazza’s Gift)
Boxed Quinella: 1,3,4,5 ($6 for 100%)
Exacta: 3,4,5/1,3,4,5 ($9 for 100%)
Trifecta: 3,4,5/1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5,6,7 ($36 for 100%)
1st: $6,260 2nd: $1,790 3rd: $890.
Marcus Joe turned in a faultless performance when scoring here last week in a brilliant 29.46 and from the red draw he should be able to repeat the dose. After stepping cleanly he showed a sizzling turn of foot before passing the first marker in five seconds flat, that type of effort would see him hold them out comfortably again tonight.
My Bro Fabio is one of the most gifted chasers in work and as per usual, he only requires an ounce of luck in running to feature. He had been beginning a lot better of late until his last effort at The Meadows when he bombed the start over 525m. He is too risky to put on top but I would expect him to run home strongly into the minor money. Gimme Fuel could be the smokey in the event, he found bother soon after the start behind Marcus Joe here last week but he balanced up quickly and found the line strongly when going down by less than three lengths.
Top Four: 1 – 5 – 3 – 8
Win bet on Marcus Joe
Trifecta: 1,5/1,5/Field ($12 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1/3,5,8/Field ($18 for 100%)
Exacta: 1,3,5/1,3,5,8 ($9 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1,3,8/5/Field ($18 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1,3,8/Field/5 ($18 for 100%)
1st: $5,750 2nd: $1,645 3rd: $830.
Stylish Baroque really caught the eye when runner up behind Duchess Bale at Ballarat two runs back and from the red draw tonight she should be able to go one better. She is normally very fast to begin and with a wide runner drawn directly on her outside she should get all the favours in the run to the first bend. Her last 50m is always a worry but she should have set up a race winning lead mid race.
Hot Whirl powered to the line when scoring at Geelong recently over 520m and she has given every indication that the 595m trip will suit. She has been missing the kick of late but with a better getaway tonight she should find herself in a prominent position throughout. Rockin’ Josie was a brilliant 29.47 winner here two weeks ago and she has a top record over this journey. Ima Fairytale is another who excels over this track and trip but from the pink draw she is going to need a lot to go her way in the early stages.
Top Four: 1 – 3 – 6 – 8
Win bet on Stylish Baroque
Exacta: 1,3/1,3,6,8 ($6 for 100%)
Quinella: 1 to rove with 3,6,8 ($3 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1/3,6,8/Field ($18 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1,3/1,3,6,8/1,3,4,5,6,8 ($24 for 100%)
1st: $5,000 2nd: $1,430 3rd: $720.
Samus Allen has won 11 of her 16 starts to date and she is blessed with a blinding turn of foot. Two starts ago she put it on show when scoring at The Meadows in 29.99 and in the process she took care of the exciting sprinter Hostile. She was beaten in her debut here last week but that was from the unsuitable pink draw, from the red tonight, this keen railer should lead throughout and there will be no excuses.
Peloton Bale is armed with a powerful finishing burst and if he can get through the first turn unscathed he is likely to make a big impact. He has struggled here in the past but most of his racing here has been in much stronger company. Prue Bale can be hard to follow at times but if she can ping the lids she should be able to regain some confidence, her record here isn’t great also but she has a sizzling 29.42 PB. Roy Galo is the interesting runner, he has been a major player in open class for a long time and with two Warragul placings of late he has showed that his isn’t too far away from his best.
Top Four: 1 – 8 – 4 – 7
Trifecta: 1/4,7,8/Field ($18 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1/4,7,8/4,7,8 ($6 for 100%)
Quinella: 1 to rove with 4,7,8 ($3 for 100%)
Exacta: 1,4,8/1,4,7,8 ($9 for 100%)
1st: $5,000 2nd: $1,430 3rd: $720.
The speed Lamia Bale has been racing in much stronger company of late and she is drawn to make every post a winner. She is normally very quick to begin and she does her best racing when on the bunny, however two runs back she was slow to begin and she still managed to fight on for the quinella spot. With average beginners drawn on either I can see her getting a very cheap lead and she looks to be one of the bets of the night.
Kerrigan Bale has been extremely costly of late but she is brilliant when she is switched on. The wide draw is a bit of a disadvantage but she does muster speed very quickly and I can see her easily settling in the top two early. Dyna Zod is aiming for a hat trick of wins and he appears to be going from strength to strength. It will be a tough ask from the squeeze box but if he happens to land in the top four he should be there at the end.
Top Four: 2 – 7 – 6 – 1
Win Bet on Lamia Bale
Exacta: 2,7/1,2,6,7 ($6 for 100%)
Quinella: 2 to rove with 1,6,7 ($3 for 100%)
Trifecta: 2/1,6,7/Field ($18 for 100%)
Trifecta: 2,6,7/2,6,7/1,2,3,4,6,7 ($18 for 100%)
Race 12 – 515M Grade 5 – 10:53PM
Zipping Snoopy returned to form with an all the way win here last week in 29.81 and from the same draw tonight he should be able to go back to back. Last week he stepped cleanly and posted a 5.12 to the first mark and that would be enough to see him hold the early lead again tonight. His overall time last Sunday was just fair but I think under better conditions tonight he should get down to around the 29.50 mark.
Velocemente has a solid record here and he isn’t too badly drawn in box six. He is likely to get early on but he has been hitting the line solidly of late and this is one of the weakest races he has contested for a while. Fully Charged is better suited to a rails draw but he has been racing in super fashion of late. He has a smart 29.69 PB over this journey and if he can get across early he should be in the finish. Strange Wish rounds out the winning hopes, he is armed with early speed and he rarely runs a bad race over this track and trip.
Top Four: 1 – 6 – 8 – 7
Win bet on Zipping Snoopy
Trifecta: 1/6,7,8/Field ($18 for 100%)
Exacta: 1,6,8/1,6,7,8 ($9 for 100%)
Quinella: 1 to rove with 6,7,8 ($3 for 100%)