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Race 1 – 515M Grade 5 – 7:08PM
In what is a handy race to open up the card, I think there are only two genuine winning chances in Elite Faze and Rinash. Although Rinash is drawn better, I’m going to give the edge to the ultra consistent Elite Faze.
Two starts ago she pounced on the early lead and scored a brilliant 25.77 Geelong win. On that occasion she posted extremely fast splits and smashed a quality line-up. She is making her Sandown Park debut tonight but I think she can cross in the early stages she should be able to set up a monster lead off the back straight. Obviously the last 50m will be a little concern but outside Rinash this isn’t an overly strong field.
Rinash scored a solid 29.91 win here from this draw last week and with an ounce of luck he should fill the quinella spot. The time wasn’t too flashy last time but I believe he is around a 29.60 dog on the bunny. Lovey and Hello Stranger appear to be the only other two chances, both have early speed and perform best when out in front. I don’t think either of them can lead tonight so place claims appear best. Worth noting that reserve Boston Heart has shown talent at Bendigo and he is a member of the strong McDonald team, so keep him safe if he gains a start.
Top Four: 8 – 1 – 6 – 2
Win bet on Elite Faze
Trifecta: 1,8/1,8/2,5,6 ($6 for 100%)
Trifecta: 8/1,2,5,6/1,2,5,6 ($12 for 100%)
Race 2 – 515M Grade 5 – 7:25PM
Another good quality race and I think the inside division hold the key. Proven Streak looks perfectly placed in the two box and she is drawn to get a clear passage at the first turn when Santa’s Special drifts wide. In recent times she has been racing without any luck but on each occasion she has hit the line very strongly. If you can get around the $7.50 she is definitely worth a crack each way.
Santa’s Special is drawn to punch through and lead and she is capable of running very fast times on the bunny. Two starts ago she showed her true talent when she reeled in the classy Bottom Dollar at Ballarat in a handy 25.64. On that occasion she hit the line strongly and the extra trip shouldn’t pose too much of a problem. He Isn’t Really is also a strong chance in this event, he is likely to get a long way out of his ground early, but he will unleash a powerful finishing burst. It may be worthwhile anchoring him for second and third in your exotics. All One Size must also be kept safe as he was far from disgraced when placed here last week after getting a long way back in the early stages.
Top Four: 2 – 1 – 3 – 4
Trifecta: 1,2/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,6,8 ($24 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1,2,4/3/Field ($18 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1,2,4/Field/3 ($18 for 100%)
Exacta: 1,2/1,2,3,4 ($6 for 100%)
Boxed Quinella: 1,2,3,4 ($6 for 100%)
Race 3 – 595M Novice Final – 7:44PM
Mepunga Mission was surprisingly slow to begin last week but he managed to work his way through the field before scoring a strong 34.51 heat win. Tonight he exits the same draw but I think he will step away a little better tonight and he should be able to find the lead as they past the post the first time. Obviously Blinkers On will be hard to hold out based on his big heat win, but I don’t think there is a lot between these two talent wise and Mepunga Mission will be a long way in front of the favourite mid race.
Blinkers On is the obvious danger and if he finds himself close to the lead at first turn he will take some holding out. Last week in his heat he used his rails draw to advantage when scoring a breathtaking 34.18 heat win, tonight I don’t believe he will get things his own way in the early stages so he will be relying heavily on luck. Outside of the top two, Josee and Jingellic look to be the likely chances to fill third spot. Josee showed good early speed in her heat placing and she may run a cheeky race again.
Top Four: 8 – 4 – 2 – 5
Trifecta: 8/4/2,5 ($2 for 100%)
Trifecta: 8/4/Field ($6 for 100%)
Win bet on Mepunga Mission
Race 4 – 715M Grade 5 – 8:08PM
Zipping Rory has been racing in very consistent fashion of late and he produced a big performance when placed here last week. Tonight’s event doesn’t appear to have a whole of lot early speed so if he can get away on terms he should be able to drive to the early lead. His last two starts suggest that he is getting stronger with every start and at the even money tonight he looks to be a solid investment.
Kim Keeping is another who has been racing in good form and she looks the logical danger based on her 42.31 win here two runs back. The only knock on her is that she can tend to bomb the start and with a number of slow beginners in this event she may get strung up in traffic. Fantasizzing doesn’t have the greatest record here but she looks the next best. She is also likely to settle back in the field, but she does have a good finish and outside of the two favourites this is a very weak race.
Top Four: 6 – 5 – 8 – 4
Trifecta: 5,6/5,6/4,8 ($2 for 100%)
Win bet on Zipping Rory.
Race 5 – 595M Mixed 4/5 – 8:28PM
The Brooke Ennis trained My Bro Fabio and Dream It are likely to be the top two fancies in this event, however I don’t they are suited and both are really under the odds. Go Mobo has been racing in great heart over the middle distances of late and he has showed that he is getting stronger and stronger with every run. With a clean beginning he should be able to roll to the early lead and the favourites will find it hard to reel him in when he is running around the 34.20 mark on the bunny.
Dream It looked super impressive when scoring at The Meadows last week in 29.91 and the way he has been hitting the line suggests that he will have no problem running out the trip. The only little concern for him tonight is the wide draw on the bend start, he can be very hit or miss at boxrise and he will need to do everything right early on. My Bro Fabio, like his kennelmate, has given every indication that he is looking for this journey. Unfortunately he is also a slow beginner and he will need the breaks as they head through the first bend. Bazza’s Gift could be the smokey in the event, he has enough speed to match Go Mobo early and he is fairly strong in the run to the line.
Top Four: 5 – 7 – 6 – 4
Win bets on both Go Mobo and Bazza’s Gift at the value
Boxed quinella: 4,5,6,7 ($6 for 100%)
Trifecta: 4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/1,4,5,6,7,8 ($48 for 100%)
Race 6 – 515M Mixed 4/5 – 8:52PM
The pacy Premier Event showed a return to form when placed here last week and he appears well graded in this event. His 5.09 first section should be enough to lead this field and he should hit the line a little better tonight. He has won her previously in 29.49, but a 29.70 run should be enough to score here.
Cobra Bale can be a very hard chaser to follow at times but when he is switched on he is quite brilliant. From the pink draw I’m thinking that he should get a fairly clear passage in the early stages and he may be able to show his true ability. Soul Eater is another hard one to follow but he showed a return to form at Ballarat last time and he is drawn to feature in this event. His box manners can let him down on occasions but he has a wonderful turn of foot and he should make his presence felt at odds.
Top Four: 4 – 8 – 1 – 3
Win bets on Premier Event and Soul Eater (Soul Eater should be value)
Boxed Quinella: 1,4,8 ($3 for 100%)
Trifecta: 1,4,8/1,4,8/1,2,3,4,5,7,8 ($30 for 100%)
Race 7 – 515M Grade 5 – 9:11PM
Very tough race but I think former star chaser Hello Good Bye might be able to return to the winners list. Although beaten, his recent form isn’t that bad and he has produced some quality efforts against some class opposition. Tonight there isn’t a whole lot of speed drawn around him and he should be able to settle in the top two. This race lacks genuine depth and I think he is likely to be over the odds.
Wise Ella should loom as a big threat after she showed a return to form at Geelong two weeks ago. On that occasion she got away nicely and set up a massive lead midrace before going on to win by a whopping 13 lengths in a sizzling 34.69. I know she is dropping back in distance here, but the two 600m races may have helped her regain some early speed and confidence. Great Spartacus must also be respected on his strong placing here last week. He doesn’t win here very often but he did post his slick 29.58 PB here from this draw and he has been racing in consistent form of late.
Top Four: 6 – 2 – 7 – 1
Win bets on Hello Good Bye and Wise Ella
Boxed Quinella: 2,6,7 ($3 for 100%)
Race 8 – 515M Free For All – 9:35PM
Marcus Joe is resuming from a short spell and he should be primed for a bold showing. He is normally very reliable early and he finds himself in a race which lacks genuine early speed. He has broken five seconds to the first marker here previously and he consistently goes around 5.06. A repeat of that should see him get across quite comfortably. The only small concern with him is that he may get tired in the last 50m, but he should have set up a big enough break mid race.
Nockabout Aussie is probably not that well drawn but the speed underneath him should be a positive. If he can step on terms he should get a nice cart across from Marcus Joe in the early stages and he has been racing in sizzling form of late. He tends to find a lot of trouble but he is going so well at the moment he is always a chance. Cornelius Fudge is drawn to settle a lot closer to the speed tonight and he has a top record here. I’m not overly convinced on his winning chances but I think is he a lock for 3rd or fourth. Corridor is resuming from a spell and he is a gun when on song, watch for any significant betting moves.
Top Four: 7 – 8 – 1 – 5
Win bet on Marcus Joe
Boxed Quinella: 1,5,7,8 ($6 for 100%)
First Four: 5,7,8/5,7,8/1/Field ($30 for 100%)
First Four: 5,7,8/5,7,8/Field/1 ($30 for 100%)
Race 9 – 595M Grade 5 – 9:55PM
Dundee Toro led for a long way over this trip last week and from the same draw he should find the lead again. Last week he appeared to get a little tired in the run home but he should be a lot better for that run. There are only a couple of chances in this event but most of the other chances are poorly drawn and risky beginners. Off the red he is probably going to be a little under the odds but he really does look suited.
Fearless Bert is a very hard dog to follow and he is disliked by most punters. He is blessed with enormous ability but he misses the kick more often than not and if there is trouble to be found, he will find it. Having said all of that, last week at Sandown he showed good signs when runner up behind the in form Lobby Lu. You’re going to be nervous going into the first bend but if he gets through unscathed he will be right in it. Ever Alert stepped up to the 600m journey at The Meadows last week and scored a strong 34.65 win. He is obviously a great chance but the only concern is that he may be posted wide as they head into the first bend. Kayo Marciarno is the run on dog in the event. He will get a long way back early but he is worth anchoring for third and fourth in your exotic bets.
Top Four: 1 – 4 – 8 – 6
Win bet Dundee Toro
First Four: 1,4,8/1,4,8/6/Field ($30 for 100%)
First Four: 1,4,8/1,4,8/Field/6 ($30 for 100%)
Boxed Quinella: 1,4,8 ($3 for 100%)
Race 10 – 515M Grade 5 – 10:12PM
The speedy Yakamov Bale has been going great guns of late and if he can reproduce the performance which saw him win at Geelong recently in 29.85, he will prove very hard to run down. There are a couple of quick beginners in this event but he is normally very reliable at box rise and he has a great turn of foot. He should have enough speed to cross in the early stages and while running 29.60 on the bunny he will prove too hard to run down.
Fighting Fang has been racing in consistent style recently and he is drawn to get a nice cart across in the early stages. He has won three times over this trip and he was far from disgraced when placed here two runs ago. Strange Wish looms as a great chance also, he has a top record over this trip and he is dropping in class from his recent racing. His box manners aren’t the best but if he can hold his ground through the first bend he will make his presence felt.
Top Four: 7 – 8 – 2 – 4
Boxed Quinella: 2,7,8 ($3 for 100%)
Win bets on Yakamov Bale and Fighting Fang (much more on Yakamov Bale)
Trifecta: 7/2,4,8/Field ($18 for 100%)
Race 11 – 595M Grade 5 – 10:32PM
Very tough race but I have decided to settle on the likely leader Miss Society. Last start she turned in a great performance at Cranbourne over 520m and tonight from the red draw she should be able to lead easily and run her opponents off their legs. She has won here previously in a fairly steady 34.78 but I think she is capable of going much quicker than that.
Peter Pettigrew has been crying out for this distance range and he is drawn to get the perfect sit behind the red. He normally gets a long way back early, however like most runners when they step up in distance, he is likely to show a little more early dash and he should be able to settle much closer to the speed. Zipping Casper appears to be the other genuine winning chance after he produced a barnstorming finish to score at The Meadows last week in 34.84. On that occasion he ripped home from well back and he looked very strong in the run home. I don’t think the outside division will get into the race tonight.
Top Four: 1 – 2 – 3 – 6
Boxed quinella: 1,2,3,6 ($6 for 100%)
Exacta: 1,2/1,2,3,6 ($6 for 100%)
Win bets on Miss Society and Peter Pettigrew
Race 12 – 515M Grade 5 – 10:52PM
Dynamic Punch has been racing in very consistent fashion of late and he really looks well graded in this event. Four starts ago he charged home to win at Warrnambool in smart time and his past two starts here have seen him place second, on both occasions he was unlucky and probably should have won those events. Superstar Magic should carve left at box rise and make the race for him and if you can land $3.50 or better, that is great value.
Sisco Good is normally a reliable beginner and he should be able to make up for his luckless efforts of late. Prior to his three luckless runs, he really caught the eye with a strong 30.11 Meadows win. This isn’t an overly strong race and with a clean getaway he should make his presence felt. Proven Earner has a top record here and he only needs an ounce of luck early to feature, whilst Superstar Magic is hit or miss at boxrise, but if he can hit he should be able to burn to the lead and will give a sight at odds.
Top Four: 7 – 3 – 2 – 6
Win bet on Dynamic Punch
Quinella: 7 to rove with 2,3,6 ($3 for 100%)
Leg 1: 4,5,6,7,8
Leg 2: 1,4,8
Leg 3: 2,6,7
Leg 4: 5,7,8
$135 for 100%