Sandown Greyhounds Race 1 Number 3 Proven Nellie 2:05pm (local time)
Punters may wonder why I am going against Bodyline that clocked 29.70 in winning last week, but I am, and I am tipping Proven Nellie with more confidence than I ever could tip Bodyline. The reason for this is that, while there is no doubt that Bodyline is very fast, he has only begun once in 12 starts. He may be turning over a new leaf, but I would not be willing to put my money on a dog at even money that normally falls out of the boxes. Proven Nellie on the other hand has been extremely unlucky in her four start career. Her first start was a handy third at Shepparton, followed by a fall at the same venue. She then returned to Bendigo where she led from box four but got dragged down, with her last start a second at Sandown behind Four Paw Glory who clocked 29.86s. Proven Nellie began well last week but was beaten for speed. When she went to make her move she checked off the leaders heels and put herself out of play. However, she was only beaten two and a quarter and ran 30.03s in running second. Box three should suit and she has enough early pace to be up there early. Rails runner Sugar Lips has great early speed but only managed 30.66 in her heat last week. If Bodyline begins he will be winning, but I am not too confident that he can.
Going with a bit of value again in the Gawler Cup tonight. Victa Victoria didn’t show much early pace in her heat victory, but it was a fantastic win where she had to do plenty of work and show plenty of heart. There is a fair amount of early dash in the race, but from box one she may be able to hold the spot on the rails and challenge the leaders going into the back straight. She ran the second fastest time in winning her heat (30.95) with Encosta Kahn going the quickest (30.84) and while he is drawn well in box two, he doesn’t always begin as well as he did in his heat, so I am prepared to risk. Victa Victoria may be worth a sneaky bet at handy odds.