2015 Group 3 Townsville Cup – free odds, tips & betting preview

DUAL Group winner Flash Reality appears destined to add another feature to his imposing record when he jumps from box five in Tuesday night’s Group 3 Townsville Cup. Trained by Tony Brett, the son of Premier Fantasy and Orara Flash was the fastest heat winner last week, clocking a slick 28.76 over the 498 metres trip, a feat which has seen him installed as the $1.80 favourite with William Hill.

A winner of the 2014 Group 1 Winter Carnival Cup and the Group 2 Queensland Derby, Flash Reality has been plagued by injury throughout his 35 start career. However, the rising four year old is one of the best in the state on his night and will take a power of beating in the $25,000-to-the-winner feature.

Embellish (box one) is the second favourite to taste success in the north-east Cup, currently $3.80 with William Hill. The daughter of Mogambo and Runaway Promises has a perfect two from two over the track and trip and is one of two chasers representing local condition Robert Lound, his other chance being Low Talker (box six), $14.

The only other runner under double figure odds is Miss Jackpot at $4.20 for top Queensland trainer Tom Tzouvelis. The black bitch will jump from box eight after coming agonisingly close to Group success when placing second to Superfonic in the Darwin Cup in August. Tzouvelis also puts the polish on Spring Bonanza (box three), rated a $13 shot to take out the race.

The Group 3 Townsville Cup is race six on Tuesday night and will jump at 8:58pm.

Lets check out the form of each runner, with selections from our resident tipster, Brad Bugeja.

Box One – Embellish
Black Bitch – 27.5kg – January 2013
Mogambo x Runaway Promises
Prize money: $6,571
Trainer: Robert Lound
Career: 26: 10-4-0
T/D: 2: 2-0-0
T/D Best: 28.98

“Locally trained chaser who has excelled since moving to this area having won four from four and all of those wins were in slick times. She looks well placed in the red draw and although this is her toughest test to date, she should run a big race and she is likely to be there at the end. Last week she was good to begin from the middle draw and was able to post an impressive 28.98; all she needs to do is repeat that effort and she can take out the final.”

Odds to win the Townsville Cup: $3.80 with William Hill

Box Two – Sleepy Mime
White Bitch – 29.0kg – April 2012
Knocka Norris x Sunlit Hope
Prize money: $8,920
Trainer: Rhonda Goodwin
Career: 54: 8-9-4
T/D: 9: 5-1-0
T/D Best: 28.81

“Has a great record over this trip and she was quite strong in the run home when scoring here last week in 29.30. However, she did get all the breaks in her heat and I can’t see that happening again tonight. She will need to find at least seven lengths on the clock to feature and I think she is facing an uphill battle.”

Odds to win the Townsville Cup: $34 with William Hill

Box Three – Spring Bonanza
Black Bitch – 26.3kg – October 2012
Spring Gun x Magic Fantasy
Prize money: $49,822
Trainer: Tom Tzouvelis
Career: 48: 13-6-8
T/D: 1: 1-0-0
T/D Best: 29.03

“Big talent and if she can step cleanly she is more than capable of saluting at nice odds. However, she can be very unreliable at box rise and she will be looking to get wide through the corner. If she can reproduce the effort which saw her win last week in 29.03 she will be able to figure in the finish, but I am concerned about the speed drawn on her outside.”

Odds to win the Townsville Cup: $13 with William Hill

Box Four – Kidatee Croc
Red Brindle Dog – 27.1kg – February 2012
Cosmic Rumble x Zin Zin Zanziba
Prize money: $73,153
Trainer: Darren Russell
Career: 69: 18-17-12
T/D: 1: 0-1-0
T/D Best: 29.11

“He has been a classy and honest chaser throughout his career and although he is getting older, he is still racing quite well. He has been placed in seven of his past eight in open company and last week he only went down narrowly to the explosive Miss Jackpot. The middle pin is a big disadvantage tonight, but he is normally quite a reliable beginner and if he can balance up in the top three he will be right there at the business end.”

Odds to win the Townsville Cup: $12 with William Hill

Box Five – Flash Reality
Black Dog – 33.3kg – December 2011
Premier Fantasy x Orara Flash
Prize money: $19,967
Trainer: Tony Brett
Career: 35: 16-6-5
T/D: 1: 1-0-0
T/D Best: 28.76

“Superstar chaser. Although he is not the same as he once was these days due to numerous injuries, he is still highly talented and he showed his class with a dazzling 28.76 heat win last week. He is a reliable beginner and he showed slick speed last week, on that occasion he looked a little lost and I’m expecting him to improve a fair bit on that run. He is going to be quite short but has a fair bit on these and with an ounce of luck he should be winning.”

Odds to win the Townsville Cup: $1.80 with William Hill

Box Six – Low Talker
Fawn Bitch – 27.9kg – August 2012
Cosmic Rumble x Queen Pedro
Prize money: $15,789
Trainer: Robert Lound
Career: 30: 8-1-1
T/D: 1: 1-0-0
T/D Best: 29.06

“Former Victorian who really caught the eye in her Townsville debut last week with a slick 29.06 heat win. Last week she was brilliant to begin and she was able to carve across and assume control early on and from there on she was never in doubt. She has the same draw tonight, but there is a lot more early speed engaged and I think she will have her work cut out trying to get across. Can win if she pings, but I can’t see it happening.”

Odds to win the Townsville Cup: $14 with William Hill

Box Seven – Deborah Rose
Black Bitch – 25.8kg – February 2013
Nitro Burst x Jodie Rose
Prize money: $5,217
Trainer: Matthew Mcguire
Career: 23: 4-4-2
T/D: 8: 2-3-2
T/D Best: 28.94

“Has a great record here over both journeys and if you’re looking for a blow out chance, she could be the one. This is a big step up in class for her but she knows the track well and she has recorded two impressive placings over this trip of late. She is used to racing from awkward draws and with a good getaway she will run a cheeky race at nice odds.”

Odds to win the Townsville Cup: $23 with William Hill

Box Eight – Miss Jackpot
Blue Bitch – 27.8kg – October 2012
Vapour Whirl x Teddy’s Jackpot
Prize money: $21,960
Trainer: Tom Tzouvelis
Career: 29: 10-6-3
T/D: 1: 1-0-0
T/D Best: 29.06

“Has a big engine and she appears ideally drawn in the pink box. She was recently placed in the Darwin Cup Final and she really caught the eye when posting a slick 29.06 heat win. That was her first look at the track, so with that run under her belt I’m expecting her to improve quite a fair bit and with a clear passage a 29.85 run should be on the cards. There is quite a bit of speed in this event so she will need luck but, if she does get it, she will make Flash Reality work very hard for victory.”

Odds to win the Townsville Cup: $4.20 with William Hill

Top Four: 5 – 8 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bets:

Win bet on Flash Reality

Quinella: 5 to rove with 1,4,8 ($3 for 100%)

Exacta: 5,8/1,4,5,8 ($6 for 100%)

Trifecta: 5/1,4,8/Field ($18 for 100%)

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