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Race 1 – 515M Grade 5 Heat – 7:08PM
After an in depth look at the form guide, I believe that veteran speedster Black Saharrah can get us off to a flying start. Drawn perfectly in box one, she looks to have enough speed to hold the early lead and from there and she should prove too hard to run down. After a run of poor performances, she returned to form with a top Warragul placing last start and tonight she returns to her favourite track and trip.
Mepunga Ledger is expected to get a long way back in the early stages but in a race which has a lot of natural leaders, his racing pattern should work in his favour. Three of his four wins have been here and he should be nice value.
Gimme Fuel and Rustic Rocket are both likely to be equal favourites, however both are likely to encounter difficulties in running. He Went Off could be a smokey at nice odds.
Top Four: 1 – 2 – 7 – 8
Win bets on Black Saharrah and He Went Off (more on Black Saharrah)
Quinella Boxed: 1,2,7 ($3 for $1)
Race 2 – 515M Grade 5 Heat – 7:24PM
Mepunga Hayley has been very costly of late but tonight she should get her chance to return to the winners list. Since scoring at The Meadows in February in a slick 30.01 she has experienced bad luck in every subsequent run. Tonight there appear to be three of four pacesetters who are all vulnerable in the last 50 metres. I’m counting on her getting a nice sit in the early stages and then proving too strong in the run home.
Skye has shown continual improvement in recent months and she is armed with sizzling early speed. Of all the early speed candidates, she is drawn closest to the rails and if she can step on terms she will have no trouble holding them out. This will be her first 500 metre run for a while so the last 30 or 40 is the only concern.
You Say Goodbye has been racing in solid form of late and he is a reliable beginner, whilst Lou Todd should get plenty of room in the early stages. Both can feature if they gain some luck through the first bend.
Top Four: 3 – 4 – 8 – 5
Suggested Bet: Win bet on Mepunga Hayley, rove in quinellas with 4,5,8
Race 3 – 515M Grade 5 Heat – 7:44PM
Now we arrive to the first monty of the night. Exciting the coveted red draw, Louie Neveelk should be able to pounce on the early lead and from there on it should be times and margins. In recent times he has lowered the colours of the exciting Campaspe Will at Traralgon and he was far from disgraced in a heat of the Launching Pad here last week. Tonight we should get around $2.50, I think he is worth having a crack at and also include him in your all-ups.
Punch It is poorly drawn in the middle but she does have early speed which will work in her favour. If she can step cleanly I believe she will match the favourite in the early stages, but I don’t think she will keep up with him in the run to the line. At around the $9.00 mark she may be worth a saver bet if Louie makes a few mistakes early, she is also great value in the quinellas.
Dundee Toro will be in the market, however the middle pin will pose a few problems for him. Newfire Riley will get a long way back early but I expect him to be hitting the line like a demon. Anchor for third and fourth in your exotic bets.
Top Four: 1 – 5 – 7 – 4
Trifecta: 1/4,5,7/Field ($18 for $1)
Trifecta: 1,5/1,5/Field ($12 for $1)
First Four: 1/4,5/7/Field ($10 for $1)
First Four: 1/4,5/Field/7 ($10 for $1)
Race 4 – 715M Grade 5 Final – 8:08PM
The highly talented Luna Jinx is expected to start a short priced favourite, however tonight I reckon she is worth taking on. Arejay Smokey tends to do his best racing at this track and surprisingly he is suitably drawn in box five. After finding early bother in his heat, he managed to hit the line strongly when beaten by under two lengths and tonight I expect him to settle much closer to the speed and at $7.00 he is enormous value.
Luna Jinx clearly has them covered in the ability category but she has shown to date that she doesn’t like to be crowded in her races. In tonight’s event there appears to be an even spread of early speed and she may find herself in a little traffic early. I have noted in her runs to date, she can ease dramatically with dogs around her, so tonight at the prohibitive odds she is worth risking.
Butterfly Bling is the blowout chance. When switched on she is more than capable, she will be double figures and if taking the favourite on she is a worthwhile saver bet. Also include Miss Cyprus and Ronald in the exotics.
Top Four: 5 – 7 – 6 – 1
Suggested Bet: Win bets on Arejay Smokey and Butterfly Bling (more on Arejay Smokey)
Race 5 – 595M Mixed 4/5 – 8:28PM
Gold Town and Prue Bale matched motors at The Meadows on the weekend with Prue Bale landing the cash. Tonight will be a different story though as Gold Town has the advantage of the inside draw. Although Prue Bale is lightning quick early, on the bend start if Gold Town can step on terms he should have enough genuine speed to hold her out and if he leads it will be goodnight folks. He has been quoted with some publications at $5.00, if you see those odds, head straight for the hole in the wall and unleash. I’m predicting you will see around $2.80 which is still worth a crack.
Tweed Bah Day is a former Queenslander who has just joined the powerful Greenough kennel. He has already shown in QLD that he has a ridiculous motor and with the Greenough polish I’m sure he may have even found an extra length or so. His only vice is that he likes to use plenty of the track.
I think Prue Bale will find things difficult from off the speed and I’m expecting her to hit a wall late. Allen Eryk is a gun chaser and if he can get some luck initially, he looms as a danger.
Top Four: 1 – 7 – 3 – 8
Suggested Bet: Win bet on Gold Town, rove in quinellas with 3,7,8
Race 6 – 515M Group Two Launching Pad Final – 8:52PM
Now we get to the feature race on the card. After going over the heat runs from last week, it really is hard not to keep coming back to Texas Titan. Not only did he overcome bother in the early stages, he still had the audacity to record the quickest time of the eight heats. I know it’s hard to get too enthusiastic about slow beginners, but with a fast beginner drawn underneath, I can see him getting a clear run early and settling within four lengths of the early leader. Currently $2.90 is available with some outlets but I think you will get better on race night.
The big improver will be the Tony Brett trained Chant. The clock read a mediocre 30.01 in his heat win, however after turning for home seven in front his final margin was only three lengths. This tells me that he was definitely short of a run and he will have derived a lot of benefit from having a look at the track. Currently you can get around $9.00 fixed odds. This is great value as I believe the smart punters will come for him closer to start time.
Classy Tasmanian Wynburn Wizard really caught the eye with his heat win and a forward showing tonight won’t be a surprise. Mepunga Ranger has the right draw but with plenty of speed out wide he may get shuffled a long way back in the early stages.
Top Four: 4 – 3 – 2 – 1
Suggested Bet: Although Texas Titan is my top pick, $9.00 about Chant is very enticing. Maybe snap up the $9.00 for Chant early and if Texas gets out to around $3.60 race night have something on him also.
Race 7 – 715M Grade 5 – 9:11PM
Although it’s just a Grade 5 event, this is one of the most exciting races on the card for mine. We get to see Nockabout Aussie make his long awaited 700 metre debut, whilst Bekim Hatrick and Wilma Bale are both coming off slick 725 metre Meadow’s wins.
I’m going to go with Nockabout Aussie. From the red draw he should fire to the early lead and I think he will get out to at least a seven to eight length lead. Obviously the last 70 is a massive concern, but at around the $3.50 mark I would be willing to take the risk.
Bekim Hatrick has really grabbed my attention of late and after finding early bother he powered to the line in his 42.90 Meadows win. He will be settling back in the field like always but if Nockabout doesn’t run the trip out I think this bloke will be there to get the cash.
Wilma Bale has loads of talent but she is extremely unreliable, she is also the type of chaser who either wins or finishes well down the track.
Top Four: 1 – 3 – 2 – 5
Win bet on Nockabout Aussie
Trifecta: 1,3/1,2,3,5/1,2,3,5,6,8 ($24 for $1)
Race 8 – 515M Special Event – 9:35PM
In a race which isn’t blessed with lightning fast beginners, Class act Marcus Joe should get his chance to cash in. Last Saturday night he pinged the lids and although headed mid race he managed to hit the line strongly and score in a very quick 29.85. My only concern tonight is that with his early speed he may in fact make things a lot easier for Campaspe Will.
Campaspe Will is dropping back in distance after two impressive 595 efforts here in recent weeks. The two runs appear to have helped him gain some confidence and his box manners have improved a little. Tonight if he can step on terms with Marcus Joe he should be in a position to apply plenty of pressure off the back straight. I was very close to putting him on top but I am still not convinced about his box manners.
Mepunga Melachi and Cornelius Fudge are the two run on dogs and they will be hoping for lots of shuffling up front in the early stages of the race. Maybe anchor those two for third and fourth in the exotics.
Top Four: 6 – 7 – 4 – 5
Trifecta: 6/7/Field ($6 for $1)
Trifecta: 6,7/6,7/Field ($12 for $1)
Trifecta: 6,7/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7 ($12 for $1)
Race 9 – 515M Grade 5 Heat – 9:55PM
The powerful Surf Mail faces a big drop in class tonight and in a race with numerous fast beginners, he should be able to avoid early trouble and settle a lot closer to the pace than normal. There are five possible leaders in this race and I am expecting there to be a big shuffle up on the first turn. If he can begin slowly like normal, he should get to the fence easily and find himself very handy to the leaders and he will prove too strong in the run home.
Go Mobo looms as the main danger. This chaser has a tremendous turn of foot and this should allow him to drive to the early lead. In his recent runs over 500 he has folded up late in the race, however after his Meadows effort on Saturday over the 525, I think he will strip a little fitter and he should be able to hang in for a little longer tonight.
Terrorizer and Lektra Stroke are both winning hopes, both have plenty of early speed and if Go Mobo misses the start, one of them may get left a long way in front.
Top Four: 4 – 3 – 8 – 5
Suggested Bet: Win bet on Surf Mail, rove in quinella with 3,5,8.
Race 10 – 515M Grade 5 Heat – 10:12PM
Normally you would shy away when you see Roy Galo drawn in box one, however tonight he may be able to utilise his draw. Being a wide runner, he will need to do everything right initially. Drawn directly outside him is a slow beginner and there only appear to be two runners with genuine early speed. His box manners have been much better of late and if he can hold them out into the first turn he should put a space in them.
Len Wayne may be some value in this event. He has been racing in consistent style of late and if Roy Galo and a few others make some mistakes early, he may be able to establish a race winning break. I am still keen on Roy Galo but I think you can also have a little saver bet on this bloke.
Banged Up Bill is likely to be well in the market but last week he was very disappointing and I wouldn’t be rushing in to take short odds tonight.
Top Four: 1 – 7 – 6 – 2
Suggested Bet: Win bets on Roy Galo and Len Wayne (lot’s more on Roy Galo)
Race 11 – 515M Grade 5 Heat – 10:33PM
We have to wait awhile but we finally get to see the unbeaten Johnny Black Fox strut his stuff in town. Clearly if you’re having a punt on this race, I suggest you just take some exotics around the favourite as he will be extremely short.
This striking black son of Collision – Alotto Mojo has scored nine brilliant country wins to date and he has shown dazzling acceleration each time. Tonight I would expect him to step on terms and take over control 30 metres into the event and from there on it’s a matter of times and margins.
If the favourite happened to make a mistake, Cee Ronaldo and Access are the likely two to spoil the party. Cee Ronaldo recently won at Traralgon in a ridiculous 29.28 and he has a top record here. A repeat of the Traralgon effort will see him keep the favourite honest.
Access really caught my eye in a heat of the Launching Pad last week, he showed great early dash and was only nabbed in the shadows of the post. It was his first try over 500 and I am certain he will be better for the run.
Top Four: 6 – 4 – 7 – 8
Trifecta: 6/4,7,8/Field ($18 for $1)
Race 12 – 515M Grade 5 Heat – 10:52PM
We now arrive at the get out stake and from the red draw, I’m tipping Mepunga Tiara can get us out on a winning note. In her brief career to date she has done her best racing from this draw and with a wide runner drawn directly outside she should be able to avoid early bother. She has a solid 29.86 best here, but she can go a lot faster than that.
Deadly Boy is the likely equal favourite but I think he is a risk from a wide draw tonight. His last start 29.54 win here was impressive but it came from the red draw and tonight he will have plenty of trouble crossing early, so I think his chances are quite limited.
Wide running Crackerjack Rose is likely to make the race for Mepunga Tiara and with her early speed she should be in a position to hold on for a minor placing.
Top Four: 1 – 2 – 3 – 8
Suggested Bet: Win bet on Mepunga Tiara.
1/3,4/1,3,5/6,7 ($12 for $1)
1/1,2,3,4/1,3,5/6,7 ($24 for $1)
1,3,7/3,4/1,3,5/6,7 ($36 for $1)
1,3,7/1,2,3,4/1,3,5/6,7 ($72 for $1)