2015 Topgun and Stayers Topgun – free tips, odds & bookmakers

CHAMPION sprinter Fernando Bale will be aiming to capture his eighth Group 1 victory on Saturday night when he exits box one in the 2015 invitation-only Topgun at The Meadows.

The son of Kelsos Fusileer and Chloe Allen became the first greyhound in the world to win over $1 million when he took out last month’s Group 1 Adelaide Cup at Angle Park, with a victory in Saturday’s feature set to add an additional $150,000 to his prize money tally.

A winner of 31 of his 38 race starts, Fernando Bale is undefeated in Group race finals and is the deserved $1.35 favourite with Sportsbet following his breathtaking 29.47 trial over the track and trip last Saturday night.

While Fernando Bale is the obvious greyhound to beat, the 2015 Topgun field is one of the best to have ever assembled at The Broadmeadows circuit. Also contesting the feature is the Kelly Bravo-trained Kayda Shae (box two), a five time Group finalist, the super strong Bessy Boo (box five), dual Group 1 winner Keybow (box seven) and freakishly fast Victorian Dyna Double One (box eight).

Also being run on Saturday night is the inaugural Group 2 Stayers Topgun, consisting of eight of the country’s top half milers. The event looks to be at the mercy of star stayer Sweet It Is, the $1.75 favourite with Bet365, which has drawn box three for the $75,000-to-the-winner event.

Lets check out the form of each runner across both finals, with comments and tips from Australian Racing Greyhound‘s resident form analyst, Brad Bugeja.

2015 Group 1 Topgun – 525 metres (9.27pm)

Box One – Fernando Bale
White and Dark Brindle Dog – 29.8kg – March 2013
Kelsos Fusileer x Chloe Allen
Prize money: $1,008,110
Trainer: Andrea Dailly
Career: 38: 31-2-2
T/D: 10: 6-2-0
T/D Best: 29.50
Career Highlights: WON 2015 Group 1 Golden Easter Egg, 2015 Group 1 Maturity Classic, 2015 Group 1 National Derby, 2015 Group 1 , 2015 Group 1 Peter Mosman Classic, 2015 Group 1 National Sprint Championship, 2015 Group 1 Adelaide Cup, 2015 Group 2 Bendigo Cup, 2015 Group 2 Traralgon Cup, 2015 Group 3 Bill Collins Memorial

“Easily the best chaser on the planet and with an even getaway he should be winning this race quite easily. He is the first greyhound in the world to break the million dollar mark and he did so winning the Adelaide Cup by a whopping eight lengths. He trialled here last week and recorded a breathtaking 29.47, so he is clearly still flying and if he holds them out at the first turn they won’t be able to reel him in whilst running that sort of time. Absolute superstar and should surpass the $1.5million dollar mark by the end of the spring.”

Odds to win the Topgun: $1.35 with Sportsbet

Box Two – Kayda Shae
Red Fawn Dog – 34.0kg – June 2013
Kilty Lad x Cosmic Aphrodite
Prize money: $124,080
Trainer: Kelly Bravo
Career: 22: 10-7-1
T/D: 0: 0-0-0
T/D Best: N/A
Career Highlights: WON 2015 Group 2 Cyril Rowe Cup, 2ND 2015 Group 3 Cranbourne Puppy Classic, 2ND 2015 Group 2 Healesville Cup, 3RD 2015 Group 1 Adelaide Cup, FINALIST 2015 Group 2 Warrnambool Cup

“Class act and like Dyna Double One, he is just extremely unlucky to be racing around the time of Fernando Bale. On times he is only about two lengths off but Fernando is faultless and that’s why it’s almost impossible for him to beat him. From the two draw, he should get a saloon passage through at the first turn and he should be trailing the champ by a couple mid race. He won’t be able to reel him in but he should be able to hold on to the quinella spot.”

Odds to win the Topgun: $6.50 with William Hill

Box Three – Lamia Bale
Brindle Bitch – 27.6kg – July 2012
High Earner x Maple Bale
Prize money: $362,065
Trainer:
Career: 72: 21-15-13
T/D: 14: 4-3-2
T/D Best: 29.78
Career Highlights: WON 2015 Group 1 Sapphire Crown, 2015 Group 2 , 2014 Group 3 Dillion Memorial, 2015 Group 3 Ambrosoli, 2ND 2015 Group 1 , 2015 Group 3 Bill Collins Memorial, 3RD 2015 Listed Australian Sprint, FINALIST 2014 Group 1 Maturity Classic, 2015 Group 1 Australian Cup

“Has been a super chaser and although she is not racing at her peak, she has still been more than competitive in quality races. Tonight she takes on a number of star chasers and I just can’t see her making an impact. Deserves her spot but she will find the going tough.”

Odds to win the Topgun: $26 with

Box Four – Fantastic Spiral
Black Dog – 31.4kg – January 2013
Spiral Nikita x Light Fantastic
Prize money: $130,281
Trainer: Julie Fletcher
Career: 30: 17-5-5
T/D: 0: 0-0-0
T/D Best: N/A
Career Highlights: WON 2015 Group 1 Dapto Megastar, FINALIST 2015 Group 3 Nowra Summer Puppy Classic

“Star NSW sprinter but I don’t think he can quite measure up to the Victorians. In recent times he has been racing extremely well and after beating a class lineup at Dapto in a blistering 29.51, he followed that up with a strong 29.80 Wentworth Park win. The only concern I have with him is that he can miss the kick at times and he will need to improve on his 29.92 trial here. Obviously that was his first look at the track but I can’t see him finding six lengths to be competitive.”

Odds to win the Topgun: $26 with Bet365

Box Five – Bessy Boo
Black Dog – 31.1kg – March 2012
Bekim Bale x My Black Bess
Prize money: $260,559
Trainer: Christine Proctor
Career: 97: 30-16-20
T/D: 0: 0-0-0
T/D Best: N/A
Career Highlights: WON 2014 Group 1 Peter Mosman Classic, 2ND 2015 Group 1 National Sprint Championship, FINALIST 2014 & 2015 Group 2 Richmond Derby, 2015 Group 1 Dapto Megastar, FINALIST 2014 Group 1 National Sprint Championship

“Absolute gun who seems to do everything right in his races. In recent weeks he has scored two powerhouse wins at Wentworth Park and with the abundance of speed in this race, I think he can actually run home into the placings. He always drops out in the early stages but he has tremendous track sense and with the expected bunching behind Fernando Bale mid race, he should get a nice rails run through the field and he could easily sneak home into second or third spot.”

Odds to win the Topgun: $41 with Sportsbet

Box Six – Brad Hill Billy
Black Dog – 31.1kg – January 2013
Kinloch Brae x Break Even
Prize money: $134,230
Trainer: Ray Smith
Career: 41: 15-11-7
T/D: 1: 0-0-0
T/D Best: 30.37
Career Highlights: WON 2014 Group 2 Cup, 2015 Group 2 Bob Payne Spring Sprint

“If you trialled him with Fernando Bale, I don’t think there would be much separating the two at the finish, however this bloke has terrible box manners and he is desperate for the inside. Had he drawn the red I would have given him a serious chance of toppling the favourite as I think he has amazing talent, however his task looks too difficult from this awkward draw.”

Odds to win the Topgun: $61 with Sportsbet

Box Seven – Keybow
Black Dog – 31.4kg – December 2011
Take The Kitty x Key Exit
Prize money: $581,173
Trainer: Tony Brett
Career: 57: 27-9-7
T/D: 10: 5-2-1
T/D Best: 29.58
Career Highlights: WON 2014 Group 1 Perth Cup, 2014 Group 1 , 2014 Group 3 Silver Bullet, 2ND 2014 Group 1 Australian Cup, 2015 Group 1 Dapto Megastar, 2015 Group 2 QLD Derby, 2014 Group 2 Cranbourne Cup, 3RD 2014 Group 1 Melbourne Cup, 3RD 2015 Group 1 Winter Cup, 2015 Group 1 National Sprint Championship, FINALIST 2014 Group 1 Topgun, 2015 Group 3

“Former superstar who qualified for this race last year and was desperately unlucky. Unfortunately this time around he just isn’t going well enough and I think he is a couple of lengths off his best. From the wide draw he also faces a struggle in trying to get across at the first bend, as there is a heap of speed drawn underneath. Deserves his spot in the race but I think he will be just making up the numbers tonight.”

Odds to win the Topgun: $34 with William Hill

Box Eight – Dyna Double One
Black Dog – 35.0kg – March 2013
Barcia Bale x Crystin Bale
Prize money: $244,648
Trainer: Andrea Dailly
Career: 36: 20-8-4
T/D: 13: 9-2-1
T/D Best: 29.43
Career Highlights: WON Albion Park 29.51TR, 2015 Group 3 Perth Cup Consolation, 2ND 2015 Group 2 WA Derby, 2015 Group 1 Peter Mosman Classic, 2015 Group 1 Winter Cup, 3RD 2015 Group 1 Silver Chief Classic, FINALIST 2015 Group 1 Golden Easter Egg, 2015 Group 1 Maturity Classic, 2015 Group 3 SA Derby, 2015 Group 1 Adelaide Cup

“One out he is probably the fastest chaser in the event and he has an amazing record over this track and trip and he also recorded his breathtaking PB here from this draw. The concern for me though is that he has had a few chances to beat Fernando Bale and he just can’t seem to get the job done. He should be in the mix for most of the way and a top three finish could be on the cards. Once Fernando Bale retires this chaser should be able to notch up a couple of well deserved Group 1 victories.”

Odds to win the Topgun: $6.50 with Bet365

Top Four: 1 – 2 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bets:

Trifecta: 1/2,5,8/2,5,8 ($6 for 100%)

Trifecta: 1/2/Field ($6 for 100%)

Trifecta: 1/2/5,8 ($2 for 100%)

Exacta: 1/2,8 ($2 for 100%)

First Four: 1/2,5,8/2,5,8/2,3,5,6,8 ($18 for 100%)

Group 2 Stayers Topgun – 725 metres (8:38pm)

Box One – Lady Toy
Black Bitch – 30.9kg – June 2012
Our Toyman x Railway Shiraz
Prize money: $383,792
Trainer: Norma Gost
Career: 76: 21-20-15
T/D: 15: 2-4-3
T/D Best: 42.58
Career Highlights: WON 2015 Group 2 McKenna Memorial, 2015 Listed Maidment memorial, 2ND 2015 Group 1 WA Galaxy, 2015 Group 1 Sandown Cup, 2015 Group 1 Association Cup, 2015 Group 1 Superstayers, 3RD 2015 Group 3 Lizrene, FINALIST 2015 Group 1 Zoom Top, 2015 Group 1 Albion Park Gold Cup, 2015 Group 1 Championship

“Racing a little below her best at present but she has come up with the good draw and with a clean getaway she should run a very cheeky race. She has two slow beginners drawn on her outside but the four does have a heap of early speed so she will need to step cleanly to hold out Ada Mary. Her last 60m over this journey isn’t great but she should be in the mix for a long way and she could hold on for some minor money.”

Odds to win the Stayers Topgun: $13 with Bet365

Box Two – Lithgow Panther
Black Dog – 32.9kg – November 2012
Mildean Panther x Mrs Trickett
Prize money: $82,841
Trainer: Rob Britton
Career: 47: 17-11-6
T/D: 2: 1-1-0
T/D Best: 42.83
Career Highlights: 2ND 2015 Group 3 Top Cat Video Cup, 2ND 2015 Group 3 Sydney Cup, FINALIST 2015 Group 2 Richmond Derby

“Lithgow Panther has tremendous talent when on song and he appears drawn to get the run of the race. I am expecting the one and four to match motors early and if he can get some clear running in the first 150m he should be able to drive up behind them in the run through the first corner and if he is within striking range he has the ability to cause an upset. He has recently joined the powerful Robert Britton kennel and he has won over this track and trip previously, so if you’re looking for one to roll Sweet It Is, it could be him.”

Odds to win the Stayers Topgun: $8 with Bet365

Box Three – Sweet It Is
Black Bitch – 29.5kg – November 2011
Mogambo x Off Springer
Prize money: $944,470
Trainer: Braden Finn
Career: 67: 24-16-5
T/D: 18: 6-4-1
T/D Best: 42.27
Career Highlights: WON 2014 Group 1 National Distance Championship, 2015 Group 1 Association Cup, 2015 & 2015 Group 1 Sandown Cup, 2015 Group 3 Sydney Cup, 2014 Group 1 Bold Trease, 3RD 2015 Group 1 Sale Cup, FINALIST 2013 Group 1 Bold Trease, 2014 Group 1 Superstayers, 2014 Group 3 Chairman’s Cup, 2015 Group 1 Association Cup

“Absolute superstar and a win tonight will see her crack the million dollar mark. She has won seven of her past eight in devastating fashion and like always, its only bad luck that can beat her. Her racing pattern is great to watch as a racing enthusiast, however she always has to negotiate a lot of traffic so you can never really declare her. On pure ability she has panels on this lot and if she starts to get out to around the $1.90 mark that appears to be well over the odds.

Odds to win the Stayers Topgun: $1.75 with Bet365

Box Four – Ada Mary
Brindle Bitch – 28.0kg – June 2012
High Earner x Silver Shiraz
Prize money: $76,524
Trainer: Sharon Grey
Career: 43: 15-4-4
T/D: 0: 0-0-0
T/D Best: N/A
Career Highlights: WON 2015 Group 3 Sydney Cup, 3RD 2015 Group 3 Chairman’s Cup, FINALIST 2015 Winter Chase, 2015 Group 1 National Distance Championship

“Likely leader and she did win the Sydney Cup last time out, however this is a much stronger lineup and I don’t think she will be getting everything her own way in front. The middle draw shouldn’t pose too many problems as she is quite reliable at box rise, however she is having her first look at the track, so she might get a little lost through the corners. Obviously she is a place chance if she can find a clear lead but there are some really strong types in this race and I think she will struggle to hold them off.”

Odds to win the Stayers Topgun: $61 with Sportsbet

Box Five – Shanlyn Lucy
Fawn Bitch – 28.3kg – August 2012
Radley Bale x Shanlyn Rosey
Prize money: $90,005
Trainer: Amy Lauterboom
Career: 51: 16-7-4
T/D: 13: 4-5-0
T/D Best: 42.55
Career Highlights: FINALIST 2015 Group 3 Top Cat Video Cup

“Has a great record here and if the leaders happen to bunch up she could be there to swoop in the closing stages at nice odds. My biggest concern with her is that she hasn’t been showing any early zip at all, so if she happens to cop a knock in the first 50m or so, she might be even further back than normal and she will have trouble reeling them in.”

Odds to win the Stayers Topgun: $14 with William Hill

Box Six – Seeking Justice
Brindle Dog – 32.2kg – August 2012
Kinloch Brae x Shanlyn Supreme
Prize money: $93,895
Trainer: Max Auld
Career: 32: 17-3-0
T/D: 4: 3-1-0
T/D Best: 42.61
Career Highlights: WON 2015 Group 3 Top Cat Video Cup

“Second pick in the race with most bookies but I think he is well under the odds and he is going to find the going tough. His box manners can sometimes let him down and there is an even spread of early speed outside of the one, four and eight, so if he happens to hesitate early he is likely to get strung up in traffic early. If he does come out running and settles in the top two or three, he is clearly a chance but I do think he is way under the odds.”

Odds to win the Stayers Topgun: $6 with Sportsbet

Box Seven – Dzeko
Black Bitch – 28.4kg – October 2012
Radley Bale x Rematch
Prize money: $200,380
Trainer: Angela Jackson
Career: 43: 14-7-5
T/D: 7: 2-0-1
T/D Best: 42.56
Career Highlights: WON 2015 Group 1 Albion Park Gold Cup, 2015 Group 3 Lizrene, 2015 Listed Cup Night Stayers, 2015 Listed Superstayers

“Can be very hard to follow at times but there is no doubting that she has enormous talent when switched on. The wide draw will definitely suit her and she can show early speed in her races, so if she can settle in the top three or four early she should be there to pounce in the closing stages and she will make Sweet It Is and Lithgow Panther work hard for victory.”

Odds to win the Stayers Topgun: $6 with Sportsbet

Box Eight – Mepunga Tiara
Black Bitch – 28.2kg – December 2011
Premier Fantasy x Mepunga Opal
Prize money: $195,875
Trainer: Jeff Britton
Career: 81: 17-13-12
T/D: 10: 3-0-2
T/D Best: 42.86
Career Highlights: WON 2014 Group 2 AWM Distance Championship, 2ND 2015 Group 2 Chairman’s Cup, 3RD 2014 Group 1 Sandown Cup, FINALIST 2014 Group 1 Albion Park Gold Cup, 2015 Group 3 Lizrene, 2015 Group 2 McKenna Memorial, 2015 Group 3 Sydney Cup

“Has been a handy stayer for quite a while now but she appears to be racing just a tad below her best and she faces a difficult task in trying to cross in the run to the first turn. Obviously if she crosses and leads she is a great chance of running a place but I can’t see it happening.”

Odds to win the Stayers Topgun: $26 with William Hill

Top Four: 3 – 2 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bets:

Boxed Quinella: 2,3,7 ($3 for 100%)

Quinella: 3 to rove with 1,2,7 ($3 for 100%)

Trifecta: 3/1,2,7/Field ($18 for 100%)

Trifecta: 2,3,7/2,3,7/1,2,3,5,6,7 ($24 for 100%)

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