Race 7 – 515M Launching Pad Heat Five – 9:11PM
Finally we have arrived to the best bet of the night. Drawn in the red box, the Michael Carter trained Fearless Bert should be able to drive to the early lead and then put a space in his rivals. His record suggests that he races better from wider draws, however he has a fast beginner and has a wide runner drawn directly outside. This should allow him to gain a clear run initially and if he can find the lure early I’m tipping a sub 29.30 run.
Zell Bale has returned to form of late and he is also capable of reeling off slick times, however he can miss the start at times and his four career wins have all come from inside draws.
Rumero Reason caught the eye when scoring at The Meadows in 30.10 recently and he then followed that up with a top placing there after finding loads of early bother. The draw won’t help as he likes to rail, but being a slow beginner he may be able to work across to the rail without finding too much bother.
Access is a highly promising speedster making his metro debut. This assignment may be beyond him but keep an eye out for him in the future.
Top Four: 1 – 8 – 6 – 7
Trifecta: 1/4,6,7,8/3,4,6,7,8 ($16 for $1)
Trifecta: 1/6,7,8/6,7,8 ($6 for $1)
Trifecta: 1/8/Field ($6 for $1)
Race 8 – 515M Free For All – 9:35PM
The open class race is probably the most difficult race on the card. There are a couple of chasers in top form and a couple who are lacking confidence, but with an ounce of luck they can return to form.
I have decided to look for a little bit of value. Veyron Bale’s present form reads terrible and he has been soundly beaten in his two runs from a spell, but in his defence he has found trouble soon after box rise in both events. When given room to muster speed he is capable of matching some of the best chasers in the land and with early speed drawn in boxes one and two, he should get a nice sit as they head through the first bend. Expect him to be double figures, but he is worth an each way ticket.
Tam’s Wish was slow to begin when placed at The Meadows last Saturday night and if she can step a little better here she should find herself in front as they head into the back straight. If she is $4.00 or better it may be worthwhile having something on both runners for the win.
Wise Ella was pretty ordinary here last week so she doesn’t look to have much of a chance. Mepunga Melachi and Cornelius Fudge are the two run on dogs, include both in your exotics.
Top Four: 3 – 1 – 5 – 7
Suggested Bet: Win bets on both Veyron Bale and Tam’s Wish
First Four: 1,3/1,3,7/5/Field ($20 for $1)
First Four: 1,3/1,3,7/Field/5 ($20 for $1)
Race 9 – 515M Launching Pad Heat Six – 9:55PM
This heat looks to be another wide open affair with six realistic winning chances. After looking at all the variables, I have settled on Mepunga Ranger. He recorded a top placing here two weeks ago behind Bogner Bale, who franked the form with another impressive Meadows win over the weekend. He can show early speed in his races but he doesn’t have to lead to win. I’m hoping he can find the rail early and avoid any scrimmaging through the first turn. and if he’s within striking distance off the back straight he should get the cash.
There are four possible leaders in this event but I believe Frank Furter has the best speed of them all. He has been racing in consistent form at The Meadows of late and if he steps cleanly he should be in the mix for a long way.
Warehouse Mouse has the most ability of any runner, but he can bomb the start at times and from the awkward draw he will need to overcome a number of difficulties to win. Run Angel Run and Top Secret look to be the other winning hopes. I know I haven’t narrowed it down too much but it truly is very open.
When placing your bets, base your investment on some runners which are over the odds. Mepunga Ranger and Run Angel Run are likely to be big overs. I have put Frank Furter in for second in my tips but I don’t believe he is a winning hope. He will lead but I think whoever lands on his back will reel him in.
Top Four: 2 – 5 – 8 – 6
Suggested Bet: Win bets on Mepunga Ranger and Run Angel Run.
Race 10 – 515M Launching Pad Heat Seven – 10:12PM
The seventh heat is probably the most intriguing heat of the night. Mepunga Sambo is coming off a 13 length win here last week in a blistering 29.32, the gifted Deadly clear has been racing without any luck at all, whilst Cheeky Hand has the speed to cross and upset them both.
Cheeky Hand looks to be the safer bet for me. I expect her to cross the inside two quite easily and she is coming off a very fast 29.41 Traralgon win. She won her maiden here in December in 30.14, but I believe she has found plenty since then and on the lure I would expect her to be running sub 29.60. With Mepunga Sambo most likely starting at even money, Cheeky Hand should be around the $5.50 mark which is great value.
As stated earlier, Mepunga Sambo caught the eye with a top win here last week. The big concern for me is the 5.22 to the first marker. A repeat of that effort would he see him getting strung up in traffic early therefore ending any winning chance.
The interesting runner is Deadly Clear, he burst onto the scene late last year with some ridiculous Shepparton wins. Since then he has had a few injury concerns and he has been luckless in three runs from a spell. If he can handle the track and is given room early it will be interesting to see what he can do.
Top Four: 3 – 2 – 6 – 1
Suggested Bet: Win bet on Cheeky Hand, rove in quinella with 1,2,6.
Race 11 – 515M Launching Pad Heat Eight – 10:32PM
The final heat looks to a battle between two emerging stars in Banged Up Bill and Mepunga Hayley. I believe that Mepunga Hayley has the edge talent wise but tonight’s box draw will see me put Banged Up Bill on top.
The Wayne Vassallo trained chaser has shown tremendous early speed in his provincial wins, however when winning here last start he showed another tool by coming from off the speed. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of speed drawn underneath him and if he steps cleanly he should be able to burn to the lead.
Mepunga Hayley has shown enormous talent in her brief career but she still has a few vices that she needs to fix. Presently her box manners are terrible and from the middle pin she is going to need plenty of luck in running.
Lunar Tom is more than capable on his night, but he has a tendency to not want to go past the leader in his races. He must be included in the exotics. Lektra Brave does his best racing here and he has a slick PB.
Top Four: 8 – 5 – 6 – 7
Trifecta: 5,8/5,6,7,8/4,5,6,7,8 ($18 for $1)
Trifecta: 8/5/Field ($6 for $1)
Trifecta: 8/Field/5 ($6 for $1)
Trifecta: 8/5,6,7/Field ($18 for $1)
Race 12 – 515M Grade 4 – 10:52PM
The get out stakes is one of the toughest and most open races of the night. Bogner Bale is expected to start short odds from the red draw, but I don’t think he is really suited.
Billy Rocket is unbeaten over this track and journey and I believe he has sufficient speed to cross the favourite in the early stages. His last few runs haven’t been overly impressive but returning to his favourite track he should be able to regain some of his confidence.
Ozzie Bullet can be a hard dog to follow at times but he too has a strong record here and is the type of chaser who tends to bob up when big odds. He can ping the lids but over this trip he has the ability to come from off the speed. I expect he will settle in the first three and he may be the value bet.
Tyronimo looks to be the other winning hope. He is poorly drawn tonight but he’s likely to settle back in the field initially, so the draw shouldn’t be too much of a concern.
Top Four: 2 – 3 – 5 -1
Suggested Bet: Win bets on Billy Rocket and Ozzie Bullet, fingers crossed we can end the night on a high note.
1,4,5,8/1,2,3,5,7/1/1,3,5,7 ($40 for 50c)
1,4,5,8/1,2,7/1/1,2,3,5,7 ($30 for 50c)
1,4/1,2,3,5,7/1/1,3,5,7 ($40 for $1)
1,4/1,2,7/1/1,2,3,5,7 ($30 for $1)